Polls suggest that
US Climate Denial is dying
Over the course of recent years, polls that examine American attitudes on global warming suggest that climate denial may be dying. It would appear that Americans have gone through the five stages in what has been called the cycle of climate acceptance.
This is an adaptation of Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’
seminal work, “On Death and Dying.” The
first step is denial, followed by anger, depression, bargaining and finally
acceptance. While many of these stages overlap or co-occur, the general trend
from denial to acceptance appears to be borne out by polling data.
After the recession of 2008, Americans were in no mood to
consider let alone embrace the veracity of climate science. They were
preoccupied with their short term economic well-being and the cataclysmic
implications of climate change were simply too much to consider. In short,
they were in a total state of denial. This is the conclusion of research
by Scruggs and Benegal.
They
claim that since 2008, “the public’s concern about climate change has declined
dramatically.” These authors cited research by the Woods Institute
for the Environment, which showed that belief in climate change was stopped or
reversed after the recession.
Tea party anger
Angry vitriolic obstructionism has been one of the defining
features of the Republican Party. This anger was most vehemently
personified by the angry arch-conservatives known as the Tea Party.
However, even the mainstream of the Republican Party began to organize
coordinated attacks on climate science and they further confused Americans with
rants chalked full of misinformation.
Thanks in large measure to their war on science, belief in climate change remained static or declined among the general population.
Thanks in large measure to their war on science, belief in climate change remained static or declined among the general population.
A study conducted by Yale University and George
Mason University highlighted the
ignorance of the Tea Party. The study found that while 62 percent of Democrats
accepted the science of climate change, only 19 percent of “Tea Party” members
said that human activity is the cause of global warming.
Republican ignorance and their denial of the facts was
born out in a number of studies and a stark partisan divide emerged on the subject of climate change.
Despite the hate filled theatrics of Republican climate
deniers, extreme weather including
hurricanes and tornadoes caused a slight increase in
the number of Americans calling for government action to combat
climate change.
Apathy and depression
In 2013, the mood in the US turned to
apathy. Americans ignored the issue or dismissed it as a conspiracy
theory. According to a 2013 Public Policy Poll, three out of every eight (37 percent) registered
voters in the US considered global warming a hoax.
Those who dismissed
climate change as a hoax were far more likely to support the Republican
Party. While 58 percent of Republicans said that it was a hoax,
only 11 percent of Democrats agreed.
Despite these troubling findings, by the end of 2013, polls
showed that there was growing belief in global warming even
among Republicans.
Agnostic bargaining
By 2014, it was getting increasingly difficult to argue
that the planet was not getting warmer.
So climate deniers in the Republican Party adopted a new approach.
When asked about global warming, they would say “I am not
a scientist”, which is a form of climate agnosticism. Republicans
began to bargain with the facts, accepting some parts of the science while
rejecting others. They would say things like, “maybe the Earth is warming, but
it is not due to human activities.”
Nonetheless, Americans began to move beyond the partisan
politics of the GOP. A 2014 Pew Research Center Poll indicated that 71 percent of Americans thought the
government should do whatever it takes to protect the environment.
An April
2014 poll revealed that Americans were supportive of emissions limits
for coal fired power plants. This last point was corroborated by a number
of subsequent polls including one from the Washington Post and ABC
News, and another from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News.
As reported in the Washington Post in November 2014, a Yale Project on
Climate Change Communication poll found that 83 percent of
Americans indicated that they think the country should make efforts
to reduce global warming, “even if it comes with economic costs.”
Acceptance
Over the course of 2015, polls show that a growing number of
Americans are beginning to accept the veracity of climate change. A review of
recent polls in Cleantechnica reveals
that Americans now demand a government that will address climate change.
A January 2015 NYTimes/Stanford University poll found that: “An
overwhelming majority of the American public, including half of Republicans,
support government action to curb Climate Change, and two-thirds of Americans
said they were more likely to vote for political candidates who campaign on
fighting climate change.”
A January 2015 poll by Benenson Strategy Group indicated
that “72 percent of likely 2016 voters said they support the United
States signing on to an international agreement on climate
change.” An April 2015 ABC News/Washington Post poll by Langer Research
said that “Americans by 59-31 percent say they want the next president to
be someone who favors government action to address climate change, and 58
percent call it an important issue.”
Contrary to the Republicans’ agnostic bargaining
position on climate change, Americans now expect their political leaders
to understand science. A new public opinion poll commissioned by Research
America and ScienceDebate.org, and conducted by Zogby Analytics, states that 87
percent of Americans said that they think candidates running for Congress or
president should have a basic understanding of the science that informs public
policy decisions.
There are indications that Americans may be beginning to catch
up to the rest of the world when it comes to accepting the veracity of
climate change. As reported by Time, an October 2015 poll from National Surveys on Energy
and Environment indicates that the denial of climate change has hit record lows
in the U.S. Only 16 percent of Americans believe there is not enough
evidence to prove global climate change is real. This is the lowest
percentage since surveys began enquiring about global warming in 2008.
A total of 70 percent of Americans now believe there is
sufficient evidence in support of climate change.
This represents an increase of 7 percent since this spring and
10 percent increase since last fall.
While it may be premature to announce that climate denial is
dead in the US, the fact that it is in
decline breathes new life into the hopes that the
U.S. may return to science based legislative solutions.
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Richard Matthews is a consultant, eco-entrepreneur, green investor and author of numerous articles on sustainable positioning, eco-economics and enviro-politics. He is the owner of The Green Market Oracle, a leading sustainable business site and one of the Web’s most comprehensive resources on the business of the environment. Find The Green Market on Facebook and follow The Green Market’s twitter feed.
Richard Matthews is a consultant, eco-entrepreneur, green investor and author of numerous articles on sustainable positioning, eco-economics and enviro-politics. He is the owner of The Green Market Oracle, a leading sustainable business site and one of the Web’s most comprehensive resources on the business of the environment. Find The Green Market on Facebook and follow The Green Market’s twitter feed.