A New Study Has an Answer
By SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS
One idea for saving humanity in the case of a lethal pandemic or other great global catastrophe is to create a safe refuge where some people can survive.
A
study of Western Australia and China during the COVID-19 epidemic suggests that
one possibility is to establish a safe refuge.
Establishing
a safe refuge – on an island or in such remote locations like the moon or
underwater – where a portion of the human population can remain alive has been
proposed as a strategy to rescue humanity in the case of a devastating epidemic
or another terrible worldwide catastrophe.
The COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent paper in the
journal Risk Analysis, shows that a refuge is a viable
idea and may not necessarily need to be remote or far away. The authors examine
how and why China and Western Australia were effective refuges during the
pandemic’s first two years in their analysis.
Seth Baum, a geographer and the executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute in Washington, D.C., and Vanessa Adams, a geographer at the University of Tasmania, investigated the case of China and Western Australia, two political jurisdictions that share borders with other countries but have managed to keep COVID-19 infections at a low level.
The predicted number of cases per 100,000 people in China from March
2020 to January 2022 was 1,358 as opposed to 98,556 in the US and 142,365 in
India. There were 48.8 official cases in Western Australia.
Previous
research has shown that island nations like Iceland, Australia, and New Zealand
are good candidates for a refuge — based on their success in keeping COVID-19
infections low in the first nine months of the pandemic. (A pandemic refuge is
a place with low medical risk where a pathogen has not spread significantly.)
The
new study, covering nearly two years of the pandemic, suggests that geographic
isolation (or being on an island) is not a prerequisite for a pandemic refuge.
“China is a very clear case in point,” says Baum. “It has succeeded despite
having the world’s longest land border.”
In
their paper, Baum and Adams examine both the differences and similarities
between China and Western Australia. China is authoritarian, collectivist, and
heavily populated in the most populous region of the world. Western Australia
is democratic, individualist, and sparsely populated in one of the most remote
regions of the world.
Yet
the two jurisdictions are similar in other, important ways. Both have a high
degree of centralization and a high capacity for self-isolation — China via its
authoritarian government, Western Australia via its social isolation and strong
economy driven by a booming mining industry. Both also have strong in-group
cohesion and have been highly motivated to avoid pathogen spread. Both China
and Western Australia have also maintained extensive trade with outside places throughout
the pandemic.
“This
is encouraging because it suggests that pandemic refuges can provide a high
degree of economic support for outside populations during pandemics, an
important element for achieving the global objective of refuges – the continuity
of civilization,” says Baum.
“Pandemic
refuges are a risk management policy concept worthy of serious consideration,”
adds Adams, “alongside other public health measures such as vaccines and
physical distancing.”
Reference:
“Pandemic refuges: Lessons from 2 years of COVID-19” by Seth D. Baum and
Vanessa M. Adams, 1 June 2022, Risk Analysis.
DOI:
10.1111/risa.13953
