Don't be foolish

From Weather.com, 1:30 pm Saturday

I've been reading people's comments that Irene is fading and will turn into nothing.

So which is more credible, laypeople writing comments on the web or the National Weather Service?

Read on for some facts and perspective.




Irene is not a terribly strong hurricane and the winds almost certainly will be weakening as it moves north. Here is the forecast for wind speed from weather.com.

This forecast shows that the wind will be at the lower end of a category 1 hurricane when it reaches the New England coast mid-day Sunday. If it isn't downgraded to a tropical storm by then, it will be shortly after it goes on land.  So that could mean winds around 65 mph. That only sounds a little higher than the 40 mph wind that we often see, but that is totally wrong - a 65 mph wind pushes with over 2 1/2 times the force of the 40 mph wind. So don't take it for granted.

The latest information I have heard is that emergency responders in Charlestown will not (generally) be going out if the wind gets above 65 mph. A gusty 65 mph crosswind is just too dangerous for driving tall, boxy vehicles like an ambulance.

Since the hurricane is going to the west of Charlestown, we will be exposed to the most significant threat, storm surge. Those winds have been spending days piling up water and that will coincide with normal high tides around 7:30 am and 7:30 pm Sunday. In a press release this morning South Kingston Police Captain Jeff Allen spoke about the low-lying coastal roads, "Due to current storm tracking and projected storm surge impact on low lying roadways, these roads may become impassable, including the lower portions of Matunuck Beach Road, Green Hill Beach Road, Charlestown Beach Road, Middlebridge Road, and Succotash Road,"

If you have a house along one of those impassable roads you may be up to your waist in water and emergency responders will not be able to reach you until the hurricane passes. That likely won't happen but it might, and do you want to take the risk? I, for one, won't laugh at you if you "go uphill" to visit a friend this evening and stay overnight.

Author: Tom Ferrio
Jeff Allen quote courtesy of SK Patch.com