Sunday, August 28, 2011

Tom's amateur weather forecast

Irene winds 8 am Sunday
Credit: weather.com
I thought I might as well provide an amateur's prediction about the future plans of Irene.

If I'm right I'll claim to be a genius and if I'm wrong I can quietly delete this article. Right? You're not going to take a snapshot of it are you?

Well here goes...



I was really impressed with how the wind was whipping the trees this morning. I even woke up before Kingsley told me that it was time for a morning walk.

But I've decided that the real wind has not reached us yet. Do you see those darker areas on the map above? (You can click to enlarge.) The darkest area shows 74+ mph wind. The next area shows 58+ mph wind. Those dark areas are on the east side of Irene, the same side that Charlestown is on. Wind gusts in our area so far seem to have been about 40 mph. And we already have some roads blocked (at least Shannock Road and Old Coach Road as of 6:30 am). Expect winds with much more force between now and mid-afternoon.

On the other hand I discount the risk from rain, judging that most of the rain is now to the north and west of Irene so we won't get enough for serious flooding.

I have not heard about the water level at this morning's high tide but I expect the storm surge for this evening's high tide to be higher, because of the wind.

Irene Rain, 8:20 am
Weather.com

Author: Tom Ferrio (only if I'm right)