From: Andy Soos, ENN
This
year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms
to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane
season outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the
National Weather Service.
The
updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season,
but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases
the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook
The
season experienced an early burst of activity followed by an extended period of
silence. Tropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Beryl both developed several
days before the official start of the season, an occurrence not seen since the
1908 Atlantic hurricane season.
When
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, it was the first time ever that four
storms formed before July since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the early
start, no further storms formed through all of July.
This
streak ended in early August with the formation of Hurricane Ernesto and
Tropical Storm Florence.
NOAA
currently predicts:
12 to
17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including: 5 to 8 hurricanes
(top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes
(Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
The
numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named
storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a
normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and
three major hurricanes.
"We
are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive
wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place
in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane
forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.
"These
conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes
that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative
of a more active season."
However,
NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely
develop in August or September.
"El
Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over
the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El
Niño’s influence until later in the season," Bell said.
For
further information see Hurricane.
