By TIM FAULKNER/ecoRI.org
News staff
Contrarians argue that
Hurricane Sandy isn’t proof of climate change. But local scientists say the
recent storm offers more damning evidence that Rhode Island’s weather and
landscape are undergoing a long-term transformation — one with a steep cost in
dollars and human health.
Temperature.
Perhaps the most significant and
indisputable fact is that the Atlantic Ocean is warmer, so much so that a
late-October storm didn’t lose steam over what should have been a colder sea.
Instead, Sandy gained speed and strength as it headed north and became an
enormous force of destruction.
Sea surface
temperature is one of the most important variables, said John Merrill,
professional of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island’s School of
Oceanography.
Overall, water temperatures
across the eastern seaboard exceeded the threshold that incites chaotic weather
and powerful hurricanes. In some locations, the warmer water might be cyclical,
in others regions the warming appears permanent. The temperature of
Narragansett Bay, for instance, has increased an average of 3.6 degrees since
the 1960s, according to studies.
The water temperature
off New Jersey was 5 to 10 degrees above normal this year. Determining an
average increase for the entire Atlantic Ocean is trickier, but the tropical
regions where hurricanes form are also in a warming trend.
In addition to
intensifying weather, warmer water expands, causing sea levels to rise. The
Northeast is considered a hotspot, with sea levels climbing four times faster
than the global average. During the past 100 years, sea level has risen a foot
in Narragansett Bay, according to studies. URI researchers expect it to jump 3
to 5 feet by the end of the century.
Storm surge.
Warmer air and warmer water produce more
powerful storms, which deliver stronger winds and waves to coastal areas.
Sandy’s tidal surge
was about 5 feet in Rhode Island, compared to 13 feet in New York and New
Jersey. The height may sound harmless, but 5 feet in a low-lying coastal area
with just a few feet of elevation means tidal surges can push deep inland.
In addition to
flooding, a powerful storm surge is a wrecking ball to natural and manmade
barriers along Rhode Island’s 400 miles of coastline. Sandy eroded beaches and
displaced concrete walls and stone embankments, known as rip rap, across the
state's southern shore. Roads were damaged or destroyed in nearly every coastal
community and on Block Island. A 200-foot section of sea wall and 2,800 feet of
sidewalk in Narragansett were badly damaged. The state Department of
Transportation (DOT) reported that sand and tons of large stones from coastal
barriers were pushed inland and along coastal roads.
Before Hurricane Sandy
arrived, the state's southern coastline was losing 1 to 4 feet annually from
wave action, according to the Coastal Resources Management Council (CRMC).
The damage shows that
building protective barriers may not be the best solution to prepare for other
storms, said John King, an oceanographer at URI’s oceanography school. “Storm
surge and the general devastation is something we’re going to see more of in
the future.”
Costs.
The cost of climate change hits businesses,
taxpayers and consumers. According the Rhode Island American Security Project,
the new climate reality “poses a serious economic threat.” Droughts, flooding
and seasonal temperature changes adversely impact agriculture, tourism and
manufactures that rely on ports. Climate change also results in fewer plants
and trees, and more pests, such as disease-carrying ticks and mosquitoes.
Higher temperatures have already led to more air pollution and subsequent
illnesses.
There will be
significant changes to Rhode Island’s iconic shoreline, according to the CRMC's
management
plan. “Future increases in relative sea level will displace coastal
populations, threaten infrastructure, intensify coastal flooding and ultimately
lead to the loss of recreation areas, public space and coastal wetlands.”
Most scientists are
moving beyond the climate change debate to address reality. “We don’t attribute
individual events to an evolving climate in a direct way,” Merrill said, “But
it’s now documented that extreme events are more common.”
An important next step, he said, is to answer
the questions facing Rhode Island and coastal areas around the world. “How do
we deal with a rapidly changing environment? How do we know where the flood
zones are? How do we know where to build and where we can’t?”