From ScienceDaily.com
Tropical storms that
make their way into the North Atlantic, and possibly strike the East Coast of
the United States, likely will become more intense during the rest of this
century.
That's the prediction of
one University of Iowa researcher and his colleague as published in an early
online release in the Journal of Climate, the official publication
of the American Meteorological Society.
The study is a
compilation of results from some of the best available computer models of
climate, according to lead author Gabriele Villarini, assistant professor of
civil and environmental engineering and assistant research engineer at
IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, and his colleague Gabriel Vecchi of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, N.J.
"We wanted to
conduct the study because intense tropical cyclones can harm people and
property," Villarini says. "The adverse and long-lasting influence of
such storms recently was demonstrated by the damage Hurricane Sandy created
along the East Coast."
The study itself
examines projected changes in the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
using output from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models and three different
potential scenarios. The PDI is an index that integrates storm intensity,
duration, and frequency.
"We found that the
PDI is projected to increase in the 21st century in response to both greenhouse
gas increases and reductions in particulate pollution over the Atlantic over
the current century. By relating these results to other findings in a paper we
published May 13, 2012 in the journal Nature Climate Change, we found
that, while the number of storms is not projected to increase, their intensity
is," he says.
"Moreover, our
results indicate that as more carbon dioxide is emitted, the stronger the
storms get, while scenarios with the most aggressive carbon dioxide mitigation
show the smallest increase in intensity," he says.
Story Source:
The above story is
reprinted from materials provided
byUniversity
of Iowa. The original article was written by Gary Galluzzo.
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Journal Reference:
1. Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A. Vecchi. Projected
Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models. Journal
of Climate, 2012; : 121116142835009 DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00441.1
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University of Iowa
(2012, November 30). More intense North Atlantic tropical storms likely in the
future. ScienceDaily.