NASA scientists at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., effectively have ruled out the possibility the asteroid Apophis will impact Earth during a close flyby in 2036. The scientists used updated information obtained by NASA-supported telescopes in 2011 and 2012, as well as new data from the time leading up to Apophis' distant Earth flyby Jan. 9, 2013.
Discovered
in 2004, the asteroid, which is the size of three-and-a-half football fields,
gathered the immediate attention of space scientists and the media when initial
calculations of its orbit indicated a 2.7 percent possibility of an Earth
impact during a close flyby in 2029.
Data discovered during a search of old astronomical images provided the additional information required to rule out the 2029 impact scenario, but a remote possibility of one in 2036 remained -- until Wednesday.
Data discovered during a search of old astronomical images provided the additional information required to rule out the 2029 impact scenario, but a remote possibility of one in 2036 remained -- until Wednesday.
"With
the new data provided by the Magdalena Ridge [New Mexico Institute of Mining
and Technology] and the Pan-STARRS [Univ. of Hawaii] optical observatories,
along with very recent data provided by the Goldstone Solar System Radar, we
have effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in
2036," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program
Office at JPL. "The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a
million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth
impact in 2036. Our interest in asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its
scientific interest for the foreseeable future."
The
April 13, 2029, flyby of asteroid Apophis will be one for the record books. On
that date, Apophis will become the closest flyby of an asteroid of its size
when it comes no closer than 19, 400 miles (31,300 kilometers) above Earth's
surface.
"But
much sooner, a closer approach by a lesser-known asteroid is going to occur in
the middle of next month when a 40-meter-sized asteroid, 2012 DA14, flies
safely past Earth's surface at about 17,200 miles," said Yeomans.
"With new telescopes coming online, the upgrade of existing telescopes and
the continued refinement of our orbital determination process, there's never a
dull moment working on near-Earth objects."
NASA
detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both
ground and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program,
commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes
a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be
potentially hazardous to our planet.
The
Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL manages the technical and scientific
activities for NASA's Near-Earth Object Program of the Science Mission
Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of
Technology in Pasadena.
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NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2013, January 11). NASA rules out
Earth impact in 2036 for asteroid Apophis. ScienceDaily. Retrieved
January 12, 2013, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130111133502.htm