RIPR’s Ian Donnis suggests that Caprio could be buoyed by a forgiving Rhode Island
that’s for second chances. I don’t think this is particularly unique to Rhode
Island; we don’t have to look very far to find examples of second chances.
Former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford recently found his way into the U.S. House of Representatives despite resigning his previous office in disgrace. Louisiana senator David Vitter frequented prostitutes and not only stayed in his seat, but won reelection. And Abraham Lincoln and Richard Nixon both lost races before winning the presidency. Second acts tend to be the nature of most democratic systems.
Former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford recently found his way into the U.S. House of Representatives despite resigning his previous office in disgrace. Louisiana senator David Vitter frequented prostitutes and not only stayed in his seat, but won reelection. And Abraham Lincoln and Richard Nixon both lost races before winning the presidency. Second acts tend to be the nature of most democratic systems.
Caprio shouldn’t depend on forgiveness. “Shove it” is one of a few liabilities. His disaffiliation from the Democratic Party last November, combined with a quick tweet insulting President Obama, demonstrates he has a massive problem with the Democratic Party. Beyond that, he also met with the Republican National Committee during 2010. If he rejoins the Democratic Party to contest the position of treasurer then it’ll be clear he’s doing it solely for the electoral boon being a Democrat adds in Rhode Island. Frank Caprio was a terrible Democrat. Apologizing for “shove it” won’t change that.
Should he pursue
office as a Democrat, it might be wise if he stayed away from WPRO’s John
DePetro. It’s unlikely his support collapsed among WPRO listeners following
“shove it.” Where it seems more likely to have collapsed is among Democratic
voters who were already weak on him to begin with and were dismayed to see him
turn the Rhode Island Democratic Party into a national laughingstock while
providing fodder for America’s conservatives. Should Caprio reaffiliate with
the Democratic Party, any potential Democratic opponent has to point out what a piss-poor job Caprio has
done in serving Democratic interests or even just being a Democrat.
The other issue
hampering Caprio’s likelihood of retaking the treasurer’s office is that he has
a record as a treasurer. In the years since he left, Gina Raimondo raised the
twin issues of the pension crisis and then pension reform. The political
reality is that pension reform has been extremely popular. And part of the
pro-reform camp’s argument has been that successive politicians kicked the can
down the road instead of dealing with the problem before Raimondo dealt with
it. Caprio has the grave misfortune to be the last person caught kicking that
can. Any potential opponent will skewer Caprio with
that point.
It’ll take more than a
forgiving electorate to overcome such hurdles; it’ll take a serious effort by
Caprio and his allies to make theses issue irrelevant. Luckily for them, they
have a year before election season takes off. That’s a lot of time to prepare
counters to all of the above.
Before this was
published, but after I finished writing it, it appears that the Caprio camp (or
at least a former campaign employee) is piloting a strategy to deal with the
Raimondo issue. It looks like they’ll talk about the hedge fund issue.
Samuel G. Howard - A
native-born Rhode Islander, educated in Providence Public Schools, went to
college in North Carolina and a political junkie and pessimistic optimist.