Study predicts $100 trillion a year in
damage due to storm surges
From: Editor, The
Ecologist in ENN.com, More from this Affiliate
New research predicts that coastal regions face massive increases in damages from storm surge flooding over the 21st century - to $100 trillion annually, more than the world's entire economic product today.
According to a study
published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, global
average storm surge damages could increase from about $10-$40 billion per year
today to up to $100,000 billion per year by the end of century, if no
adaptation action is taken.
This staggering figure - more than the entire world's current Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - represents the upper end of the estimate that storm surges will cost between 0.3 and 9.3% of global GDP by 2100, taking into acount expected GDP increases.
But timely investments
in coastal protection could cut that cost by more than 99.9%, the authors
conclude.
A comprehensive global
simulation
The study, led by the
Berlin-based think-tank Global Climate Forum (GCF) and involving the University
of Southampton, presents, for the first time, comprehensive global simulation
results on future flood damages to buildings and infrastructure in coastal
flood plains.
Drastic increases in
these damages are expected due to both rising sea levels and population and
economic growth in the coastal zone. Asia and Africa may be particularly hard
hit because of their rapidly growing coastal mega-cities, such as Shanghai,
Manila and Lagos.
"If we ignore this
problem, the consequences will be dramatic", explains Jochen Hinkel from
GCF and the study's lead author. In 2100, up to 600 million people - around 5%
of the global population - could be affected by coastal flooding if no
adaptation measures are put in place.
"Countries need to
take action and invest in coastal protection measures, such as building or
raising dikes, amongst other options", urges Hinkel.
With investment, cost
falls below $100 billion
With such protection
measures, the projected damages could be reduced to below $80 billion per year
during the 21st century. The researchers found that an investment level of $10
to $70 billion per year could achieve such a reduction.
Prompt action is needed
most in Asia and Africa where large parts of the coastal population are already
affected by storm surge flooding.
Continue reading at ENN
affiliate, The Ecologist.
