Social norms strongly influence
vaccination decisions, the spread of disease
Our
response to societal pressures about vaccination has a direct effect on the
spread of pediatric infectious diseases in areas where inoculation is not
mandatory, says new research published this week in Proceedings of the
Royal Society B.
By
incorporating social norms into predictive mathematical modelling, a research
team from the University of Guelph and the University of Waterloo found that
they can foresee the observed patterns of population behavior and disease
spread during vaccine scares -- times when anti-vaccine sentiment is strong.
"If
vaccination is not mandatory and disease is rare, then a few parents will be
tempted to stop vaccinating their children," said Professor Chris Bauch of
Waterloo's Faculty of Mathematics, and one of the study authors. "More
parents adopt this behavior as social norms begin to change and it becomes
increasingly acceptable to avoid some vaccines. Obviously, when enough parents
are no longer vaccinating, the disease will come back."
"Parents
are not cold, clinical rationalists who base their decisions only on data. They
are strongly influenced by other parents and what they read," said
Professor Bauch. "Our research suggests that health officials needs to
have a really good understanding of the social context to better understand
vaccine scares and why people refuse vaccines. To do that, we have to develop
predictive tools that also reflect social behavior patterns, or we won't be
able to accurately represent what is happening during vaccine scares."
Predictive
modelling can help public health officials plan for responses to vaccine
programs. The models that Professor Bauch and his colleagues use can determine what
may happen in a population where a vaccine scare has taken hold.
"If
you've seen a big drop in vaccine coverage and you've seen a surge of disease
because of that, you can use these models to predict how long it will take
vaccine coverage to recover," said Professor Bauch.
Professor
Bauch and his colleagues will continue to study how social norms interact with
disease spread. Down the road, he hopes to use this model to create an index,
which may be able to help determine which populations are more susceptible to
vaccine scares, with the hope of preventing them from occurring.
Story Source:
The
above story is based on materials provided by University of Waterloo. Note:
Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference:
1.
T. Oraby, V. Thampi,
C. T. Bauch. The influence of social norms on the dynamics of
vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases. Proceedings of
the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2014; 281 (1780): 20133172 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3172
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University of Waterloo. "Social norms strongly influence
vaccination decisions, the spread of disease." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 14 February 2014.