Dems
Poised to Benefit as Climate Change Emerges as an Election Issue
There
are clear indications that climate change is finally emerging as a critical
election issue. As reiterated by those who participated in the first Democratic
Presidential debate, most of the candidates have plans to manage the climate
crisis.
It
is not hyperbole to suggest that this may be the most important election in
American history. We are rapidly running out of time to get a handle on the
climate issue. If we are to succeed in staving off the worst impacts of climate
change, we must act and we must act now.
To
keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius, we have to slash
carbon emissions by 70 percent by 2050. To have a shot at reaching this goal,
we must begin to seriously reign in CO2 by 2020. Failure to do so could push us
past disastrous tipping points.
In
the Democratic leadership debate on October 13th, climate change was a high
priority issue for all but one of the contenders for the presidential
nomination. In order of the strength of their climate action plans here are the
six candidates:
- Martin O’Malley
- Bernie Sanders
- Hillary Clinton
- Lincoln Chaffee
- Lawrence Lessig
- Jim Webb.
Bold
climate action from the next US President is crucial. As the world’s largest
economy and the leading voice in the international community, American
leadership on climate change is essential.
In
an article titled “Climate Change Issues May
Decide the 2016 US Election,” NextGen says that the next president
must act boldly to accelerate the transition to clean energy:
“[C]lean energy sources will create jobs, save lives by reducing pollution, and drive the kind of economic growth that benefits all Americans. The global race for climate solutions and clean energy is already underway. The question for the public is whether the United States will seize this opportunity to lead, or be left behind as other nations reap the economic benefits.”
Climate
action is also an important issue for Democrats who want to benefit from the
deep pockets of Tom Steyer. He spent $74 million on political races in 2014 and
to earn his support in 2016, candidates must pledge to generate half of the
nation’s electricity from clean sources by 2030, and 100 percent by 2050 (so
far only O’Malley meets these criteria).
It
is easy to be cynical. Many have hoped that American voters would wake up to
the urgency of climate change in previous elections only to be disappointed. In
the 2012 campaign, climate change was a non-issue, it
was also a no-show in the 2014 midterms.
However, it is not unrealistic to
believe that climate change may finally emerge as an election issue in 2016.
This view is buoyed by a New York Times Stanford
University poll indicating that two-thirds of voters would
support a candidate who pledges policy action on climate change.
“Whether
or not candidates make this commitment will be a critical factor for Americans
who are deciding what candidates to support at polls,” wrote Steyer.
Climate
change is also an important wedge issue for the Democrats, as it exposes
Republican policy vulnerability. If climate change emerges as a key issue for
Republican voters, the GOP’s hopes to win the white house are in serious
jeopardy.
The Papal Encyclical has
deprived Republicans of their last vestige of legitimacy and they are now are at odds with voters on
climate change and clean energy. None of the Republican contenders has unveiled
a renewable energy strategy and none of them have suggested that we should
abandon fossil fuels.
This
is a more serious ballot box issue than it has been in the past. It is widely
known that the majority of Democratic supporters accepts anthropogenic climate
change and they believe that government has a responsibility to do something
about it.
This view is becoming increasingly prevalent among Republican voters.
The majority of Republicans now say that they support climate action. Even some
Republican presidential contenders are realizing that denial is politically untenable.
“This
will be a make-or-break presidency as far as our ability to avert a climate
change catastrophe,” says Michael Mann,
meteorology professor and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn
State University.
The
choice is clear, if America votes for a Democrat, (other than Jim Webb) we have
a chance of staving off the worst impacts of climate change. If America votes
for a Republican, the chances of reigning in climate change falls dramatically.
Republicans
have painted themselves into a
corner as none of their candidates have advanced a climate plan
to slow warming. If climate change finally emerges as a pivotal election issue,
the Democrats are poised to maintain their hold on the most powerful office in
the world.
——————–
Richard
Matthews is a consultant, eco-entrepreneur, green investor and author of
numerous articles on sustainable positioning, eco-economics and
enviro-politics. He is the owner of The Green Market Oracle, a
leading sustainable business site and one of the Web’s most comprehensive
resources on the business of the environment. Find The Green Market on Facebook and
follow The Green Market’s twitter feed.
