Report Warns that Plastics Will Soon
Outweigh Fish in World's Oceans
The weight of plastic waste clogging the world's oceans threatens to exceed all fish by 2050 if the world's seemingly insatiable appetite for the material continues at the current explosive rate, warned a new report.
In
fact, according to the study by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation along with the
World Economic Forum, "plastics production has surged over the past 50
years, from 15 million tonnes in 1964 to 311 million tonnes in 2014, and is
expected to double again over the next 20 years."
The
study—The New Plastics
Economy: Rethinking the future of plastics (pdf)—introduced at
the opening day of the WEF's annual summit in Davos, Switzerland is the first
of its kind to comprehensively assess global plastic packaging flows.
The
report makes an economic case for what it calls the "New Plastics
Economy," described as "a new approach based on creating effective
after-use pathways for plastics; drastically reducing leakage of plastics into
natural systems, in particular oceans; and decoupling plastics from fossil
feedstocks."
Among the findings, which are based on interviews with over 180 experts and on analysis of over 200 reports, the study estimates that roughly 8 million tonnes of plastics leak into the ocean each year—"which is equivalent to dumping the contents of one garbage truck into the ocean every minute." This amount is expected to double by 2030.
"In
a business-as-usual scenario, the ocean is expected to contain 1 tonne of
plastic for every 3 tonnes of fish by 2025, and by 2050, more plastics than
fish (by weight)," the report continues.
What's
more, the report estimates that only 14 percent of plastic packaging is
collected for recycling and even less for plastics in general. After sorting,
only 5 percent is ultimately retained for subsequent use, which is far below
global recycling rates for paper (58 percent) and iron and steel (70–90
percent).
Further,
the report examines the carbon impact of plastics production, given that over
90 percent are derived from "virgin fossil feedstocks." Plastics
production represents roughly 6 percent of global oil consumption and "If
the current strong growth of plastics usage continues as expected, the plastics
sector will account for 20% of total oil consumption and 15% of the global
annual carbon budget by 2050."
The
report argues that single-use plastics, and plastic packaging specifically,
represents a net loss for the economy, as its limited value is outweighed by
these negative impacts. It states:
After
a short first-use cycle, 95% of plastic packaging material value, or USD 80–120
billion annually, is lost to the economy. A staggering 32% of plastic packaging
escapes collection systems, generating significant economic costs by reducing
the productivity of vital natural systems such as the ocean and clogging urban
infrastructure. The cost of such after-use externalities for plastic packaging,
plus the cost associated with greenhouse gas emissions from its production, is
conservatively estimated at USD 40 billion annually – exceeding the plastic
packaging industry’s profit pool.
"Linear
models of production and consumption are increasingly challenged by the context
within which they operate, and this is particularly true for high-volume, low-value
materials such as plastic packaging," said Ellen MacArthur, an accomplished
British yachtswoman turned foundation chair.
The
researchers conclude that in order to get closer to the goal of a
"circular economy"—where "consumption happens only in effective
bio-cycles; elsewhere use replaces consumption"—both the public and
private sector must work towards the goal of creating plastics that can be both
recycled and composted.