Addicted to oil — the first 10 years
State of the Union speeches tend to be banal, or maudlin,
laced with shout-outs or platitudes; lofty goals or soon-to-be-broken promises.
But on January 31, 2006, President George W. Bush made a
stunning national confession: The former oilman, who had conquered his own
personal addictions, staged a national intervention:
“Here we have a serious problem,” he told the United States.
“America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts
of the world.”
The President went on to lay out an ambitious multi-step
recovery program, harnessing technology to develop “zero-emission coal plants,
revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean safe nuclear energy.”
Ten years later, clean coal is a bust, and the biggest
industry in then-Vice President Dick Cheney’s home state is on the brink.
The
long-predicted booms in clean energy are finally happening; the financial
viability of many old and a handful of new nuclear plants is in doubt; and
electric and hydrogen car development is in the slow lane.
Internationally,
volatile oil prices and oversupply have triggered economic uncertainty and
global security angst. All before the oil-supply spigots come
back on line from Iran.
It all adds up to this: Despite a few notable shifts, oil is
still America's Daddy – on the roads, in Washington, and just about everywhere
else. Here are some of the events in the past decade that affirmed its paternity.
The fracking boom moved much oil production
onshore. After a decade in third place, the U.S. leapfrogged Russia and Saudi
Arabia to become the world’s biggest petroleum producer in 2013, according to
the Energy Information Administration.
U.S. oil imports are one-third lower than they
were when Bush called America out. Imports are just one item that oil and gas
fracking have turned upside down: the coal and nuclear industries are being
squeezed out of the electric market; drilling in costlier places like the
Arctic is no longer cost-effective; clean energy’s growth is slowed by cheap
oil and gas, and small towns from Texas to North Dakota to Pennsylvania are
being re-made, for better or worse.
EV speed bumps
In his 2008 election campaign, Barack Obama set an audacious
goal: One million electric vehicles (EV's) on U.S. roads by 2015. But battery
technology has been slow to develop, prices remain high and, of course, EV’s
have a hard time competing with $1.80-a-gallon gasoline.
With 400,000 EV’s on the road in 2015, we made it less than
halfway to Obama’s goal. At the Detroit Auto Show in early January, Energy
Secretary Ernest Moniz moved the million-EV goalposts back to the year 2020.
And with gas prices in a trough, Americans have chosen to
apply their fuel savings to ... buying more fuel. Vehicle sales set a record in
2015, with 17.3 million car or light truck purchases in the U.S. It’s far
easier to observe changing gas prices than a changing climate.
358 million miles an hour
American vehicles log more than three trillion miles per year, triple what we
did in 1971. That works out to the equivalent of a trip to the sun every 16
minutes.
The number has stayed fairly steady for the
past decade—total mileage is growing slightly, while per capita miles have
taken a slight drop. Apart from a boost from ethanol (10.4 percent of the
content of U.S. gasoline, according to EIA), virtually all of it is from
petroleum products.
MPG rises
In the first model year after Bush’s 2006
speech, Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards were 27.5 miles per
gallon for cars. For 2016, the standard is 34.1 MPG. By 2025, CAFE
standards are targeted for 54.5 mpg.
Actual gas mileage tends to be lower than CAFE
numbers. But even with improving efficiency, EIA says gasoline demand
rose 2.6 percent in 2015 over 2014.
Exxon falls
From 2013 to 2015, ExxonMobil slipped from
third to fifth place on Fortune’s Global 500 list of the biggest
corporations in the world. Wal-Mart completed its second year at the top of the
heap.
But the next five slots are still held by
three western, and two Chinese-based, oil giants: Sinopec, Royal Dutch Shell,
China National Petroleum, Exxon, and BP, respectively.
Money talks
The Center for Responsive Politics listed the
oil and gas industry in 12th place in 2006 for federal lobbying expenditures at
$75 million. By 2015, they were in third place at $129 million, behind only the
pharmaceutical and insurance industries.
Since the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United
decision re-wrote the rules for campaign financing, hard numbers on campaign
contributions have become tougher to tally.
But one group affiliated with oilmen Charles
and David Koch, Americans for Prosperity, filed documents acknowledging that it
spent $122 million on the 2012 election cycle. Other
estimates put Koch-related groups in the $400 million range. The Kochs revealed
a plan to spend nearly $900 million in the
2016 elections, from their own funds and a network of like-minded donors.
Pols listen
In the decade past, many Republican leaders
not only acknowledged climate change, they joined the call for action. John
McCain co-sponsored climate legislation. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney led
his state to establish an ambitious climate program. Former House Speaker Newt
Gingrich made nice with Nancy Pelosi to film a climate change TV spot.
A favored goal in climate policy these days is to keep oil in the ground. Climate science tells us that that is essential to minimizing climate impacts. It’s an unspeakably lofty goal.
Senate candidate Marco Rubio said he saw
climate change legislation as inevitable, and urged his fellow Floridians to
keep their heads above water. In 2007, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin acknowledged
the threats to her state by founding a climate change “sub-cabinet.”
Even non-politicians like Bill O’Reilly and
Rupert Murdoch called for action and slammed climate denial. All have since
renounced their past climate comments, with Gingrich calling his ad appearance
“the biggest mistake of my career” when challenged over it during the 2012
Presidential campaign.
Moral of the story:
The science is overwhelming, and the
on-the-ground evidence is growing rapidly, that we’re falling behind on climate
change action. Climate activists have scored an impressive string of victories,
from the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline to the growth of wind and solar,
to an agreement of sorts in Paris and the active interest of a President and a
Pope. Canada’s headlong rush toward becoming an Oil State was sidetracked
by a change in government.
But amid the upturns and optimism, most of the
reasons that prompted George W. Bush to announce America’s addiction are still
in full force a decade later:
Fracking may have helped create a degree of
political and financial independence, but bringing fossil fuel’s other baggage
in-house is hardly a triumph. Fossil-free cars and trucks are still bit
players. Oil companies are still five of the six biggest corporations in
the world. Big Oil’s hand in American politics has gotten bigger, and
politicians once open to climate action have swung to denial in response.
A favored goal in climate policy these days is
to keep oil in the ground. Climate science tells us that that is essential to
minimizing climate impacts. It’s an unspeakably lofty goal.
But climate activists make it even more
difficult if there’s no recognition of the inertia, economics, ideology and
self-interest that stand in the way. We’re still addicted.
Our
oil addiction, by the numbers
Compiled
by Peter Dykstra, The Daily
Climate
In 2006,
then-President George Bush told the nation "we have a serious problem ...
America is addicted to oil." Here's what's happened since:
Average U.S. price for a
gallon of gasoline, January 2006: $2.33
Average price in January 2016: $1.91
Average price in January 2016: $1.91
Benchmark price, barrel of
W. Texas Intermediate Crude, Jan. 2006: $65.48
As of Jan. 25, 2016: $30.34
As of Jan. 25, 2016: $30.34
Percentage of U.S. oil that
is imported, 2006: 60
Percentage imported, 2014: 27
Percentage imported, 2014: 27
Fuel efficiency, miles per
gallon, U.S. vehicles, 2006: 17.2
Mid-2015: 25.4
Mid-2015: 25.4
Light truck sales (pickups,
SUV’s, Crossovers) in the United States in 2006: 8.7 million
Sales in 2016: 9.7 million
Sales in 2016: 9.7 million
U.S. hybrid electric vehicle
sales in 2006: 252,636
Hybrid sales in 2014: 443,824
Hybrid sales in 2014: 443,824
Number of earthquakes
magnitude 3.0 or greater in Oklahoma from 2000 through 2009: 26
Magnitude 3.0 and above earthquakes in Oklahoma in 2016 alone: 857
Magnitude 3.0 and above earthquakes in Oklahoma in 2016 alone: 857
Wastewater injection, in
millions of barrels per month, in Oklahoma in 1997: 80 million
In 2014: 160 million
In 2014: 160 million
Total vehicle miles
traveled, 2006: 3.0 trillion
In 2015: 3.1 trillion
In 1971: 1.0 trillion
In 2015: 3.1 trillion
In 1971: 1.0 trillion
Global oil rigs in
operation, January 2006: 3,038
In operation, January 2016: 1,982
In operation, January 2016: 1,982
Crude oil shipped by rail
in US, 2010, millions of barrels: 20.2
Oil shipped by rail in 2014: 380.7
Oil shipped by rail in 2014: 380.7
Sources:
Oklahoma
Shakes: historic and present-day
Oklahoma wastewater injection data
Percentage
of US oil that is
imported
Peter Dykstra is the weekend editor for The
Daily Climate and its sister publication, Environmental Health News. Follow him
on Twitter at @pdkystra.
The Daily Climate is an
independent, foundation-funded news service covering energy, the environment
and climate change. Find us on Twitter @TheDailyClimate or
email editor Brian Bienkowski at bbienkowski [at] EHN.org