By
TIM FAULKNER/ecoRI News staff
EDITOR'S NOTE: The controversial Burrillville natural gas plant proposal has been put on hold for at least 90 days by the state's Energy Facility Siting Board. This suspension was issued to give project planners time to come up with a practical plan for where they will find coolant water since most local sources are no longer available to them.It turns out that an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions is easier said than done.
A preliminary study commissioned by the Executive Climate Change
Coordinating Council (EC4) concludes that even with the near elimination of
fossil fuels to generate electricity, heat homes and power cars, Rhode Island
will only be able to cut its greenhouse-gas emissions 62 percent by 2050.
Don't fear, according to the consultants conducting the research.
The target will be more attainable with the advancement of new technologies and
emission reductions from other sources of greenhouse gases such as landfills,
manufacturers, cement plants and off-road vehicles.
“This is a work in progress,” said Taylor Binnington, a scientist
with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).
“We’re almost there but not quite.”
Somerville, Mass.-based SEI conducted the greenhouse-gas study with Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management(NESCAUM) of Boston. The consultants were retained by the EC4 to meet state emission-reduction targets set by the General Assembly when it passed the Resilient Rhode Island Act in 2014.
The study cuts emissions from 10 of the biggest emitters of carbon
dioxide, such as power plants, transportation and home heating. The
calculations assume that by 2050 the energy grid will be charged with 97
percent renewable; electric vehicles replace 85 percent of gas-powered cars;
and 90 percent of homes heat and cool with heat pumps.
The report also postulates the following emission reductions: 80
percent from buses; 95 percent from refuse trucks; 80 percent from
tractor-trailers; 100 percent from trains; and a 40 percent fuel-efficiency
improvement in the aviation sector.
Other assumptions include a relicensing of the Millstone Nuclear
Power Station in Waterford, Conn., and a 31 percent use of biodiesel in
diesel-powered vehicles. The report doesn't contain underlying assumptions
about specific sources for future energy generation, because, Miller said, they
are revisiting their facts and figures.
Left unanswered are the impacts of the proposed Burrillville power
plant, natural-gas pipeline projects and new fossil-fuel infrastructure, such
as the proposed liquefied natural gas facility on the city's waterfront.
Questions also remain about the study’s assumption of an increase in
high-carbon biomass and imported hydropower.
Groups outside of the state climate council called for greater
protection of natural resources that help reduce and store climate emissions.
Paul Roselli of the Burrillville Land Trust and Christopher Riley
of the Rhode Island Woodland Partnership spoke
of the need to protect carbon sinks such as open space and forestland.
James Boyd of the state Coastal Resource Management Council said
by 2050 sea-level rise will likely destroy half of Rhode Island’s remaining
wetlands — another valuable carbon sink.
Boyd also noted that the state must
improve compliance with its Land Use 2025 plan
and stop clearing open space for large commercial developments outside of urban
centers, such as the newCitizens Bank office park in
the Johnston woods.
“That means we shouldn’t be cutting a hundred acres or two hundred
acres of forest in chunks because we are going to lose that as a carbon sink,”
Boyd said. “So, we’re doing all of the things that our policy says we shouldn’t
be doing.”
He repeated the conclusion reached by many at the recent meeting.
“The takeaway from today is that if we aggressively do all of these (emissions)
reductions we’re still not going to make the 80 percent target," Boyd
said.
Todd Bianco, principal policy associate with the Public Utilities
Commission, was surprised that renewable energy alone couldn't hit the state's
emissions-reduction target. “It’s definitely a surprise that you can go to a
nearly 100 percent renewable grid, push a bunch of technologies on to that
grid, and fall far short of your target," he said.
The study is expected to be discussed at the Oct. 12 meeting of
the full EC4. A report on the state’s climate plan is due to Gov. Gina Raimondo
by the end of the year. The EC4’s subcommittee on greenhouse gases meets next
on Nov. 18.
Rhode Island
emissions
In 1990, Rhode Island generated 10.74 million metric tons of
carbon dioxide. In 2010, the state generated 12.25 million metric tons.
The top
three emitters in 1990 were highway vehicles (41 percent), residential heating
(22 percent) and commercial heating (7 percent). In 2010, the top three
greenhouse-gas emitters were highway vehicles (30 percent), electric power
generation (26 percent) and residential heating (19 percent).