White
deaths exceeded births in one-third of states, including Rhode
Island
University of New Hampshire
Some 121 million
people representing 38 percent of the U.S. population reside in these states:
California, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New
Hampshire, Mississippi, Arkansas, Delaware, Nevada, Maine, Alabama,
Connecticut, New Mexico, West Virginia and Rhode Island.
The research found that non-Hispanic white deaths now exceed
births in a growing number of states because more whites are dying and fewer
white babies are being born.
These demographic changes in the white population
result from a rising number of older adults, fewer women of childbearing age
and lower fertility rates.
Because these trends are difficult to reverse many of these states are likely to see white deaths continue to exceed births.
As white population increase has diminished it has been offset
by minority population gains, the researchers found.
In particular, births exceed
deaths by a considerable margin among the Latino population because it is
younger, has a larger proportion of women of childbearing age and higher
fertility rates.
The combination of these demographic trends is increasing the
diversity of the U.S. population.
According to Census Bureau projections,
whites will make up less than half of the U.S. population (47 percent) by 2050.
In contrast, the youthful Latino population is projected to be 29 percent of
the U.S. population by 2060.
"These demographic trends have major policy
implications," the researchers said. "The largely white older
population will grow rapidly as baby boomers continue to age, increasing
demands on the healthcare and retirement systems. In addition, the youthful
minority population will require major investments in education and training if
the U.S. is to maintain a productive workforce in an increasingly competitive
technological and global labor market. The competing demands will create
considerable potential for disagreements regarding funding priorities."
The full report can be found here: https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/white-deaths
The research was conducted by Kenneth Johnson, senior
demographer at Carsey and a professor of sociology at UNH, and Rogelio Sáenz,
policy fellow at the Carsey School and dean of the College of Public Policy and
Mark G. Yudof Endowed Professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
