Entomological Society of America
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| Flint, Michigan is a pretty good match for the authors' profile of a community vulnerable to a Zika outbreak |
Is the United States at risk for a large-scale outbreak of Zika
or other mosquito-borne disease?
While climate conditions in the U.S. are increasingly favorable
to mosquitos, socioeconomic factors such as access to clean water and air
conditioning make large-scale outbreaks unlikely, according to new analysis of
existing research -- but small-scale, localized outbreaks are an ongoing
concern.
In
their forthcoming paper in the Journal of Medical
Entomology, "Factors of Concern Regarding Zika and Other Aedes aegypti-Transmitted Viruses in the
United States," Max J. Moreno-Madriñán of the Indiana University-Purdue
University Indianapolis and independent research entomologist Michael Turell
argue that a leading factor in outbreaks of Zika, yellow fever, dengue, and chikungunya
-- all transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito -- is low socioeconomic
conditions in developing countries.
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| So is the Navajo nation |
While
tropical temperatures appear to contribute, historical outbreaks of yellow
fever and dengue in the United States as far north as New England show that
mosquitos can indeed carry and transmit disease in more temperate climates
during summer months.
The key difference, the researchers argue, are factors related
to low socioeconomic status such as the absence of air conditioning, the absence
of screened windows, and the prevalence of household water storage, all of
which are uncommon in developed countries like the U.S.
"It
seems clear that the main factors keeping outbreaks of these diseases from
occurring today are socioeconomic such as lifestyle, housing infrastructure,
and good sanitation. While such conditions are maintained, it seems unlikely
that large scale local transmission will occur, especially in northern
states," the authors write.
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| And West Virginia. And hundreds of other urban and rural population centers. If the authors are correct, Zika is to become another disease of the poor |
However,
the risk remains for localized outbreaks to occur, particularly in southern
states where a longer warm season, pockets of lower socioeconomic conditions,
and more-common travel connections to countries where Zika and other diseases
are present are all contributing factors.
"The
growing interconnection of our global society makes global public
health-related issues, such as sanitation and the lack of a continuous supply
of running water in developing countries, an important concern to developed
countries, as these developing countries may serve as a source of imported
cases of disease," the authors write.
They
also suggest that protection against outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases is
yet another reason for investment in infrastructure and disaster planning.
"If the isolation between humans and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes
in the U.S. is primarily caused by lifestyle and living infrastructure
associated to socioeconomic conditions, these could be threatened by massive
natural disasters, or any other event that disrupts current
infrastructure," they write.