By Robert Reich
The question is no longer whether there are grounds to impeach
Donald Trump. It is when enough Republicans will put their loyalty to America
ahead of their loyalty to their party.
Trump’s statements last week about his firing of former FBI
director James Comey provide ample evidence that Trump engaged in an
obstruction of justice – a major charge in impeachment proceedings brought
against Richard M. Nixon and Bill Clinton.
It’s worth recalling that the illegality underlying Nixon’s
impeachment was a burglary at the Watergate complex, while the illegality
underlying Clinton’s was lying to a grand jury about sex with an intern in the
White House.
Trump’s obstruction is potentially far more serious. It involves
an investigation about whether Trump or his aides colluded with Russia in
rigging a presidential election – the most direct assault on American democracy
in history,
Last Thursday, in an interview with NBC News’s Lester Holt about
his firing of Comey, Trump said: “I was going to fire regardless of recommendation.”
Trump also said that he had pressed Comey during a private dinner to tell him
if he was under investigation.
Trump conceded that the ongoing investigation into Russian influence on the 2016 election, which includes a probe into the possibility that Moscow was coordinating with the Trump campaign, was one of the factors Trump considered before firing Comey.
“In fact, when I decided to just do it, I said to myself, I
said, ‘You know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made-up story,
it’s an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should
have won,’ ” Trump said.
The law is reasonably clear. If Trump removed Comey to avoid
being investigated, that’s an obstruction of justice – an impeachable offense.
On Friday, Trump tweeted that Comey “better hope that there are
no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!”
Here, the law is also clear. Seeking to silence, intimidate or
even influence someone who is likely to offer evidence in a congressional or criminal
proceeding is also an obstruction of justice – and an impeachable offense.
As a practical matter, though, nothing will happen until a
majority of the House decides on bringing a bill of impeachment. Which means,
under the present congress, twenty-two Republicans would have to join with
House Democrats to put enough pressure on the Speaker of the House to allow
such a bill to be considered.
The odds of this occurring in this Congress, under present
circumstances, are approximately zero.
So – barring a “smoking gun” that shows Trump’s complicity with
Russian operatives in interfering in the 2016 election – Trump’s fate seems to
hinge on the midterm elections of 2018.
Those elections are less than eighteen months away. That’s a
long time in American politics. Under a Trump presidency, that’s an eternity.
But there’s another possibility.
In my experience, most elected politicians have two goals – to
do what they consider to be the right things for the American public, and to be
reelected (not necessarily in that order).
If Trump’s poll numbers continue to plummet – particularly among
Republicans and Independents – twenty-two House Republicans may well decide
their chances for being reelected are better if they abandon him before the
2018 midterms.
Paul Ryan and the House Republican leadership might make a
similar calculation, at least enough to put a bill of impeachment on the table.
Most House Republicans prefer Vice President Mike Pence to
Donald Trump anyway.
As one said to me several months ago, “Pence is a predictable
conservative. Trump is an unpredictable egomaniac. Most of us are more
comfortable with the former.”
There’s a good chance Trump’s polls will continue to fall.
First, he’s shown to be his own worst enemy. Even when things are going
reasonably well, he seems bizarrely intent on stirring controversy – and saying
or tweeting things that get him into trouble.
There’s also a matter of the economy. The expansion that began
in 2009 is getting long in the tooth.
If history is any guide, we’re due for a
slowdown or recession. And justified or not, presidents get blamed when
Americans lose jobs.
Donald Trump doesn’t have the character or the temperament to be
president of the United States.
But this obvious fact isn’t enough to get him fired.
He’ll be fired when enough Americans decide they can’t abide him
anymore.
Then, maybe in an impeachment proceeding, it will come out that
Trump did something incredibly stupid – like give a nod of approval to one of
his campaign bottom feeders like Roger Stone to tell a Russian operative to go
ahead with their plan to interfere in the 2016 election.
The House impeaches. The Senate convicts. That’s the end of
Trump.
ROBERT B. REICH is Chancellor's Professor of
Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at
the Blum Center for Developing Economies. He served as Secretary of Labor in
the Clinton administration, for which Time Magazine named him one of the ten
most effective cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. He has written
fourteen books, including the best sellers "Aftershock", "The
Work of Nations," and "Beyond Outrage," and, his most recent,
"Saving Capitalism." He is also a founding editor of the American
Prospect magazine, chairman of Common Cause, a member of the American Academy
of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the award-winning documentary,
INEQUALITY FOR ALL.
