Changes
impact local fishing communities, resource management
Shelley Dawicki, NOAA
EDITOR’S NOTE: Here is yet another example of endangered science
that would be terminated under Trump’s proposed budget. And the odds are high
that you will not be able to access this research on any government website in
the future.
Scientists using a high-resolution global climate model and
historical observations of species distributions on the Northeast U.S. Shelf
have found that commercially important species will continue to shift their
distribution as ocean waters warm two to three times faster than the global
average through the end of this century.
Projected increases in surface to
bottom waters of 6.6 to 9 degrees F (3.7 to 5.0 degrees Celsius) from
current conditions are expected.
The findings, reported in Progress in Oceanography,
suggest ocean temperature will continue to play a major role in where
commercially important species will find suitable habitat.
Sea surface
temperatures in the Gulf of Maine have warmed faster than 99 percent of the
global ocean over the past decade.
Northward shifts of many species are
already happening, with major changes expected in the complex of species
occurring in different regions on the shelf, and shifts from one management
jurisdiction to another.
These changes will directly affect fishing
communities, as species now landed at those ports move out of range, and new
species move in.
”Species concentrated in the Gulf of Maine, where
species have shifted to deeper water rather than northward, may be more likely
to experience a significant decline in suitable habitat and move out of the
region altogether.”
The researchers used bottom trawl survey data collected between
1968 and 2013 on the shelf to estimate niches for 58 demersal and pelagic
species.
A high-resolution global climate model known as CM2.6, developed
by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New
Jersey, was used to generate projections of future surface and bottom ocean
temperatures across the region.
The future temperatures were then used to
project where marine species would find suitable habitat.
“Similar studies in the past used a coarse model with a roughly
100-kilometer or 62-mile ocean resolution, while the new model has a
10-kilometer or 6.2-mile ocean resolution, making the simulation of oceanic and
atmospheric features much more accurate,“ said Vincent Saba of the NEFSC‘s
Ecosystems Dynamics and Assessment Branch, who works at GFDL and is a co-author
of the study.
Saba has compared the difference between the coarse model and
the new high-resolution model as being similar to the difference between an old
standard definition television set and today’s ultra high definition screens.
Researchers looked at species distributions in spring and fall
in the Gulf of Maine on the northern part of the Northeast Shelf and those on
the southern end, from Georges Bank to the Mid-Atlantic Bight.
They also
examined what the shifting distributions might mean for fishing communities by
looking at the current and potential future distance between the main fishing
port in each state and the center of the distribution of suitable thermal area
for the top-landed species by weight in each state.
Key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice,
Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorny skate may lose thermal habitat, while spiny
dogfish and American lobster may gain.
Projected ocean warming in the Gulf of
Maine may create beneficial conditions for American lobster populations, and
they may continue to be accessible to fishing ports in the region.
In contrast, species like monkfish, witch flounder, white hake
and sea scallops may remain accessible to major local fishing ports but could
experience strong declines in habitat due to ocean warming. Atlantic cod,
which is at the southern end of its range, may find suitable thermal habitat
off the shelf entirely or in more northern waters in Canada.
In states south of New York, the distance to the centers of
species distribution from ports may increase for some species, including summer
flounder, which is currently the third most-landed species in Virginia. In
North Carolina, the distance from ports to the center of distribution may
increase for all six of the top landed species. Among the top six species
landed in Virginia, only Atlantic croaker and striped bass are projected to
have more suitable habitat.
“Warming waters may have a positive effect on smooth dogfish,
Atlantic croaker, and striped bass in the southern part of the Northeast
Shelf, with increases in suitable habitat in terms of area and species
abundance, “ Kleisner said.
“But these species are also shifting northward and
the bulk of the biomass of some species may be further from the main ports in
southern states, making it more costly for fishermen to access these species.
Conversely, as species move into new regions, fishermen may have new
opportunities.”
The projections indicate that as species shift from one
management jurisdiction to another, or span state and federal jurisdictions,
increased collaboration among management groups will be needed to set quotas
and establish allocations.
“These changes will depend on the pace of climate change and on
the ability of species to adapt or shift elsewhere to maintain a preferred
habitat,” said Kleisner.
“We did not examine fishing pressure, species
interactions and other factors that may influence future distributions.
However, given the historical changes observed on the Northeast Shelf over the
past five decades and confidence in the projection of continued ocean warming in
the region, it is likely there will be major changes within this ecosystem.”
“Those changes will result in ecological, economic, social, and
natural resource management challenges throughout the region,” Kleisner said.
“It is important to understand large-scale patterns in these changes so that we
can plan for and mitigate adverse effects as much as possible.”
Funding for this joint project between NOAA’s Northeast
Fisheries Science Center and The Nature Conservancy study was provided by a
grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.
Related
Links:
Projected Impacts of Climate Change: Thermal Habitat (52 species)
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