The art of the (Trump and Putin Deal)
By Robert
Reich
To see this video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_syEPp28oY
Say you’re Vladimir Putin, and you
did a deal with Trump last year. Whether there was such a deal is being
investigated. But if you are Putin and you did do a deal,
what might Trump have agreed to do for you?
1. Repudiate NATO.
NATO is the biggest thorn in your side – the alliance that both humiliates you
and stymies your ambitions. Trump seemed intent to deliver on this during his
recent European trip by bullying members about payments and seemingly not
reaffirming Article 5 of the pact, which states that any attack on one NATO
ally is an attack on all. (He’s backtracked on this since then, under pressure
from Congress.)
2. Antagonize Europe, especially Angela Merkel. She’s the strongest leader in
the West other than Trump, and you’d love to drive a wedge between the United
States and Germany. Your larger goal is for Europe to no longer depend on the
United States, so you can increase your influence in Europe. Trump has almost
delivered on this, too. Merkel is already saying Europe can no longer depend on
America.
3. Take the United States out of the Paris accord on the
environment. This
will anger America’s other allies around the world and produce a wave of
anti-Americanism – all to your advantage. You’d also love for the whole Paris
accord to unravel because you want the world to remain dependent on fossil
fuels. Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia,
and biggest exporter of natural gas. And the oil and gas industry contributes
about half the revenues to your domestic budget. And, hey, there’s also all
those Arctic ports that are opening up now that the earth is
warming. Trump has delivered on this.
4. Embark on a new era of protectionism. Or at least anti-trade rhetoric. This will threaten the
West’s economic interdependence and loosen America’s economic grip on the rest
of the world. Trump is on the way to delivering on this one.
5. End the economic sanctions on Russia, imposed by the United States in 2014. Oil production on
land is falling so you want to tap the vast petroleum and gas reserves offshore
in the Arctic. In 2011, you and ExxonMobil’s Rex Tillerson, signed a $500
billion deal to do this. But the sanctions stopped it cold. Trump has promised
to lift them, but he hasn’t delivered on this yet, because he has got to cope
with all the suspicions in America about his deal with you.
Once it dies down, he’ll end the
sanctions. In the meantime, he’ll give you back the two compounds that were
seized by the Obama administration when the U.S. intelligence discovered you’d
interfered in the election.
And what might you have agreed to do
for Trump in return?
Two things: First, you’d help him win the presidency, by hacking into Democratic Party servers, leaking the
results, sending millions of fake news stories about Hillary to targeted
voters, and tapping into voter lists.
Second, after he was elected, you’d shut up about your help so Trump wouldn’t be impeached and
convicted of treason.
In other words, if you
did a deal, you both still have every incentive to fulfill your side of it.
That’s the art of the deal.
ROBERT
B. REICH is Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of
California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at the Blum Center for Developing
Economies. He served as Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration, for
which Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries
of the twentieth century. He has written fourteen books, including the best
sellers "Aftershock", "The Work of Nations," and "Beyond
Outrage," and, his most recent, "Saving Capitalism." He is also
a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine, chairman of Common Cause,
a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the
award-winning documentary, INEQUALITY FOR ALL.