Study Finds Strong
Rationale for the Human Factor
National Institute for Mathematical and
Biological Synthesis
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Humans may be the dominant cause of global temperature rise, but they may also be a crucial factor in helping to reduce it, according to a new study that for the first time builds a novel model to measure the effects of behavior on climate.
Drawing from both
social psychology and climate science, the new model investigates how human
behavioral changes evolve in response to extreme climate events and affect
global temperature change.
The model accounts for
the dynamic feedbacks that occur naturally in the Earth's climate
system—temperature projections determine the likelihood of extreme weather
events, which in turn influence human behavior.
Human behavioral changes, such as installing solar panels or investing in public transportation, alter greenhouse gas emissions, which change the global temperature and thus the frequency of extreme events, leading to new behaviors, and the cycle continues.
Human behavioral changes, such as installing solar panels or investing in public transportation, alter greenhouse gas emissions, which change the global temperature and thus the frequency of extreme events, leading to new behaviors, and the cycle continues.
Combining climate projections and social processes, the model predicts global temperature change ranging from 3.4 to 6.2°C by 2100, compared to 4.9°C from the climate model alone.
Due to the complexity
of physical processes, climate models have uncertainties in global temperature
prediction.
The new model found that temperature uncertainty associated with the social component was of a similar magnitude to that of the physical processes, which implies that a better understanding of the human social component is important but often overlooked.
The new model found that temperature uncertainty associated with the social component was of a similar magnitude to that of the physical processes, which implies that a better understanding of the human social component is important but often overlooked.
The model found that
long-term, less easily reversed behavioral changes, such as insulating homes or
purchasing hybrid cars, had by far the most impact in mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions and thus reducing climate change, versus more short-term adjustments,
such as adjusting thermostats or driving fewer miles.
The results, published
today in the journal Nature Climate Change, demonstrate the
importance of factoring human behavior into models of climate change.
"A better
understanding of the human perception of risk from climate change and the
behavioral responses are key to curbing future climate change," said lead
author Brian Beckage,
a professor of plant biology and computer science at the University of Vermont.
The paper was a result
of combined efforts of the joint Working Group on Human Risk Perception and Climate
Change at the National Institute for Mathematical and
Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and
the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) at the University
of Maryland.
Both institutes are supported by the National Science Foundation.
The Working Group of about a dozen scientists from a variety of disciplines, including biology, psychology, geography, and mathematics, has been researching the questions surrounding human risk perception and climate change since 2013.
Both institutes are supported by the National Science Foundation.
The Working Group of about a dozen scientists from a variety of disciplines, including biology, psychology, geography, and mathematics, has been researching the questions surrounding human risk perception and climate change since 2013.
"It is easy to
lose confidence in the capacity for societies to make sufficient changes to
reduce future temperatures. When we started this project, we simply wanted to
address the question as to whether there was any rational basis for 'hope'—that
is a rational basis to expect that human behavioral changes can sufficiently
impact climate to significantly reduce future global temperatures," said
NIMBioS Director Louis J. Gross,
who co-authored the paper and co-organized the Working Group.
"Climate models
can easily make assumptions about reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions
and project the implications, but they do this with no rational basis for human
responses," Gross said. "The key result from this paper is that there
is indeed some rational basis for hope."
That basis for hope
can be the foundation which communities can build on in adopting policies to
reduce emissions, said co-author Katherine Lacasse, an assistant professor of psychology at
Rhode Island College.
"We may notice
more hurricanes and heat waves than usual and become concerned about climate
change, but we don't always know the best ways to reduce our emissions,"
Lacasse said. "Programs or policies that help reduce the cost and
difficulty of making long-term changes or that bring in whole communities to
make long-term changes together can help support people to take big steps that
have a meaningful impact on the climate."
Citation: Beckage B. et al. 2018. Linking models
of human behavior and climate alters projected climate change. Nature
Climate Change. [Online]
Model code [pace.zip],
containing the PACE model integrated with the CROADS Carbon Cycle model.
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The National Institute
for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis is an NSF-supported center that
brings together researchers from around the world to collaborate across
disciplinary boundaries to investigate solutions to basic and applied problems
in the life sciences.
