Trump’s strategy
for keeping power is to build up his coalition of America’s white working class
and the nation’s ownership class.
It’s
a curious coalition, to say the least. But if Democrats don’t respond to it, it
could protect Trump from impeachment and even re-elect him.
It just might create a permanent Republican majority around an axis of white resentment and great wealth.
It just might create a permanent Republican majority around an axis of white resentment and great wealth.
Two
decades ago, Democrats and Republicans competed over the middle class. They
battled over soccer moms and suburban “swing” voters.
Since
then the middle class has shrunk while the working class has grown, and vast
wealth has been accumulated by a comparative few who now own a large portion of
America. Some of their wealth has taken over American politics.
Enter
Trump.
Counties whose voters shifted from Obama to Trump in 2016 had lost economic ground to the rest of America, even more than did solidly-Republican counties. Trump is counting on the unwavering support of these mostly white working class voters.
Meanwhile,
much of the ownership class has come over to Trump. He’s counting on it to
bankroll Republican politicians who are loyal to him.
Since
becoming president, Trump has sought to reward both sides of this coalition –
tossing boatloads of money to the ownership class, and red meat to the white
working class.
One
boatload is the corporate and individual tax cut, of which America’s richest 1
percent will take home an estimated 82 percent by 2027, according to the Tax Policy
Center.
Another
boatload is coming from government itself, which Trump has filled with
lobbyists who are letting large corporations do whatever they want – using
public lands, polluting, defrauding consumers and investors, even employing
children – in order to push profits even higher.
Trump’s
red meat for the white working class is initiatives and tirades against
unauthorized immigrants and foreign traders – as if they’re responsible for the
working class’s lost ground – and other symbolic gestures of economic populism,
along with episodic racist outbursts, and support for guns and evangelicals.
Every
time Trump sends more money to the wealthy he sends more red meat to his base.
Weeks
ago, after announcing he’d seek another big tax cut before the midterm
elections – “phase two,” as he termed it – he threatened China with a trade
war; arranged another crackdown on unauthorized immigrants, including a
carefully-choreographed plan to break up families at the border and attack
sanctuary cities; and vowed to go after pharmaceutical companies.
Yet
red meat goes only so far. At some point, you’d think, the white working class
would realize that the only real beneficiaries of the Trump coalition are the
super-rich.
Trump’s
clampdown on foreign imports and immigrants won’t raise working-class wages.
It’s more likely to erode their paychecks because it will cause consumer prices
to rise.
Yet it leaves American multinational corporations unscathed. They don’t make their money off trade and don’t rely on immigrants; they fabricate and sell from all over the world. If a trade war with China breaks out, they’ll merely shift their sourcing to other nations.
Yet it leaves American multinational corporations unscathed. They don’t make their money off trade and don’t rely on immigrants; they fabricate and sell from all over the world. If a trade war with China breaks out, they’ll merely shift their sourcing to other nations.
His
tax cut put a few dollars in working-class pockets but is already requiring
cuts in services they rely on, and will demand more.
His
plan to bring down drug prices won’t make drugs any cheaper. Instead, it’s a
big win for drug companies whose prices won’t be controlled and won’t have to
negotiate with Medicare and Medicaid.
Trump
doesn’t want his base to know that the only way they can permanently become
better off is by reining in the ownership class.
He
doesn’t want them to recall that the ownership class is largely responsible for
hollowing out the middle class.
For decades the captains of American industry, backed by the nation’s biggest investors, have squeezed payrolls by outsourcing abroad, cutting or eliminating job benefits, busting unions, and shifting to part-time and contract work.
For decades the captains of American industry, backed by the nation’s biggest investors, have squeezed payrolls by outsourcing abroad, cutting or eliminating job benefits, busting unions, and shifting to part-time and contract work.
He’d
rather they didn’t see that corporate profits – flowing into higher executive
pay and higher share prices – have constituted a steadily larger portion of
economy, while wages have been a steadily lower portion. Most economic gains
have gone to the top. We have had socialism for the rich and harsher capitalism
for everyone else.
If
Democrats were smart they would expose all this – and commit themselves to
reversing these trends by creating a multi-racial coalition of the poor,
working class, and what’s left of the middle.
Trump’s curious coalition endures only because he’s a clever salesman and conman. The only way it can possibly succeed at entrenching Trump is if Democrats say and do little or nothing.
Robert B. Reich is Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at
the University of California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at the Blum Center
for Developing Economies. He served as Secretary of Labor in the Clinton
administration, for which Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective
cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. He has written fifteen books,
including the best sellers "Aftershock", "The Work of
Nations," and"Beyond Outrage," and, his most recent, "The
Common Good," which is available in bookstores now. He is also a founding
editor of the American Prospect magazine, chairman of Common Cause, a member of
the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the award-winning
documentary, "Inequality For All." He's co-creator of the Netflix
original documentary "Saving Capitalism," which is streaming
now.