Climate change will have region-specific
impacts on human health, economy
Brown epidemiologist Gregory Wellenius was a contributing author to the Fourth National Climate Assessment, focusing on the risks and impacts residents of the Northeast will face.
The Earth has already warmed approximately 1.7 degrees since
1901, the Fourth
National Climate Assessment (NCA)
reports, and projected warming between 2.7 degrees and 3.6 degrees by 2100
will bring even more record-breaking storms, rising sea levels and spread of
disease-carrying insects.
Gregory Wellenius, an associate professor of epidemiology in
Brown University’s School of Public Health, researches how the places people
live impact their health, particularly the impact of air pollution, and how
changing climate and rising
temperatures will influence health
and well-being.
He is also studying how to create communities and cities that are healthier, more sustainable and more resilient.
He is also studying how to create communities and cities that are healthier, more sustainable and more resilient.
In late November, the federal government released the second
volume of the NCA, a congressionally mandated report by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. Wellenius was a contributing author for a chapter focusing on
how climate change would affect residents of the Northeast.
Wellenius and Dr. Perry Sheffield, an assistant professor at the
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai who contributed to the same chapter of
the report, also wrote a commentary about the significance of the report for
the journal Epidemiology. The
commentary was published on Tuesday, Nov. 27.
Wellenius shared his insights in the wake of both the report and
the commentary.
Q: What does the fourth installment of the NCA add to the conversation about climate change? What would you say is the main conclusion?
This assessment is published every four years, and what the
fourth NCA adds is a focus on what matters most to people. It’s not about how
the changing climate is affecting the environment — it’s how the changing
climate is threatening the things that we as people that live in these regions
care about most.
This report included 10 regional chapters to highlight how continued climate change threatens those aspects of our lives and livelihoods that people value most in each region of the country, as well as examples of steps being taken to minimize those risks across the country. An additional 16 chapters integrate the major themes across the country.
This report included 10 regional chapters to highlight how continued climate change threatens those aspects of our lives and livelihoods that people value most in each region of the country, as well as examples of steps being taken to minimize those risks across the country. An additional 16 chapters integrate the major themes across the country.
Although all Americans care about their health and economic
livelihoods, the threats from continued climate change are specific to each
location. For example, the Northeast has a lot of seasonal tourism — from fall
foliage to winter skiing and summer beach vacations — as well as fishing and
agriculture, all of which are under threat from continued climate change.
The report focuses on how climate change is threatening our families, our communities, our kids. This document provides a very comprehensive description of how continued climate change threatens our way of life, which differs from community to community.
The report focuses on how climate change is threatening our families, our communities, our kids. This document provides a very comprehensive description of how continued climate change threatens our way of life, which differs from community to community.
Q: The title of your Epidemiology commentary is “The U.S. Government
just published a new report detailing the impacts of climate change on
Americans: Does it matter?” So, does it?
There have been several reports in the last few months about the
threat of climate change. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change just released the 1.5 degree Celsius report andthe Lancet just posted the Lancet Countdown.
The NCA report is 1,500 pages, involved more than 300 experts and cites more than 6,000 references, so it would be easy to think of it as just another big, government report.
But it is important because it highlights how continued climate change threatens the way we live, work and play, today and into the future.
The report also gives us a few reasons for optimism. For example, despite the fact that the current administration is hostile to climate change science, there are hundreds if not thousands of federal employees — including the hundreds who worked on this report — actively working to reduce the risks of climate change and its impacts on our communities.
The NCA report is 1,500 pages, involved more than 300 experts and cites more than 6,000 references, so it would be easy to think of it as just another big, government report.
But it is important because it highlights how continued climate change threatens the way we live, work and play, today and into the future.
The report also gives us a few reasons for optimism. For example, despite the fact that the current administration is hostile to climate change science, there are hundreds if not thousands of federal employees — including the hundreds who worked on this report — actively working to reduce the risks of climate change and its impacts on our communities.
Q: What is your opinion on the current administration’s stance on
human-caused climate change? Can we do anything besides work at a more local
level?
The current administration is short-sighted, preferring
short-term economic gain and political ideology over policies that would
protect the health, well-being and economic opportunities of current and future
generations. State and local governments and large corporations have begun to
fill the void left at the federal level.
Federal policies would definitely help, but there’s so much to be gained from climate action at local level.
And you see it being done: States, cities and communities are taking very active roles in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions — mitigating future climate change — as well as better preparing their residents for the future climate risk, including extreme temperatures, severe storms, air pollution episodes, sea level rise, spread of infectious diseases, lower crop yields and so on from continued climate change — adaptation. I think that there is hope, the pace of change is always too slow, but we are moving in the right direction.
Federal policies would definitely help, but there’s so much to be gained from climate action at local level.
And you see it being done: States, cities and communities are taking very active roles in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions — mitigating future climate change — as well as better preparing their residents for the future climate risk, including extreme temperatures, severe storms, air pollution episodes, sea level rise, spread of infectious diseases, lower crop yields and so on from continued climate change — adaptation. I think that there is hope, the pace of change is always too slow, but we are moving in the right direction.
Q: As far as climate change mitigation and adaptation are
concerned, what steps could Rhode Island legislators take to improve the
resilience of the state?
Rhode Island had the first commercial offshore wind farm in the
country, which was very exciting. Now that is a technology and approach that is
really taking off in our neighboring states, so Rhode Island has set an
example. On the other hand, there’s always more we can do.
There’s going to be some hard choices to make in terms of the cost of reducing future greenhouse gas emissions as well as infrastructure development. How are we going to continue to develop our cities and towns in Rhode Island to make those communities more resilient to the severe weather and other climate changes that are already here?
There’s going to be some hard choices to make in terms of the cost of reducing future greenhouse gas emissions as well as infrastructure development. How are we going to continue to develop our cities and towns in Rhode Island to make those communities more resilient to the severe weather and other climate changes that are already here?
Q: In your Epidemiology commentary, you mention the importance of
a pipeline for climate researchers. Can you provide any insight for
Brown students considering a career in climate research?
I think that students today have an incredibly exciting
opportunity. There are critical moments in history when being in the right
place at the right time will give you opportunities to be new leaders in a
field.
Climate science has a long history, but science at the intersection of climate and health is a really new concept. There are relatively few people in the world working specifically in this area so there are tremendous opportunities for young people with new ideas, bringing combinations of technical skills to bear on this great challenge. Every great challenge comes with great opportunities to make a huge impact and a huge difference.
Climate science has a long history, but science at the intersection of climate and health is a really new concept. There are relatively few people in the world working specifically in this area so there are tremendous opportunities for young people with new ideas, bringing combinations of technical skills to bear on this great challenge. Every great challenge comes with great opportunities to make a huge impact and a huge difference.
I encourage students who are interested in pursuing careers in
climate research — specifically climate and health — to excel in a discipline,
but we really need people who can bring together multiple disciplines to tackle
problems in new ways.
And for students who are thinking about disciplines that haven’t traditionally been a part of this conversation, I think that’s where the biggest opportunities are available. For example, there’s so much potential in the use of big data and artificial intelligence, new computational techniques to bring together data sources that we haven’t fully leveraged in the past.
And for students who are thinking about disciplines that haven’t traditionally been a part of this conversation, I think that’s where the biggest opportunities are available. For example, there’s so much potential in the use of big data and artificial intelligence, new computational techniques to bring together data sources that we haven’t fully leveraged in the past.
Students at premier institutions such as Brown also have an
opportunity, really a responsibility, to advocate for climate action by
encouraging their institution to reduce their carbon pollution and their
government representatives to enact policies to better protect us and our
communities from the threat of climate change.