This morning I phoned my friend, the
former Republican member of Congress.
ME: So, what are you hearing?
HE: Trump is in deep sh*t.
ME: Tell me more.
HE: When it looked like he was
backing down on the wall, Rush and the crazies on Fox went ballistic. So he has
to do the shutdown to keep the base happy. They’re his insurance policy. They
stand between him and impeachment.
ME: Impeachment? No chance. Senate
Republicans would never go along.
HE (laughing): Don’t be so sure.
Corporate and Wall Street are up in arms. Trade war was bad enough. Now, you’ve
got Mattis resigning in protest. Trump pulling out of Syria, giving Putin a
huge win. This dumbass shutdown. The stock market in free-fall. The economy
heading for recession.
ME: But the base loves him.
HE: Yeah, but the base doesn’t pay
the bills.
ME: You mean …
HE: Follow the money, friend.
ME: The GOP’s backers have had
enough?
HE: They wanted Pence all along.
ME: So …
HE: So they’ll wait until Mueller’s
report, which will skewer Trump. Pelosi will wait, too. Then after the Mueller
bombshell, she’ll get 20, 30, maybe even 40 Republicans to join in an
impeachment resolution.
ME: And then?
HE: Senate Republicans hope that’ll
be enough – that Trump will pull a Nixon.
ME: So you think he’ll resign?
HE (laughing): No chance. He’s
fu*king out of his mind. He’ll rile up his base into a fever. Rallies around
the country. Tweet storms. Hannity. Oh, it’s gonna be ugly. He’ll convince
himself he’ll survive.
ME: And then?
HE: That’s when Senate Republicans
pull the trigger.
ME: Really? Two-thirds of the
Senate?
HE: Do the math. 47 Dems will be on
board, so you need 19 Republicans. I can name almost that many who are already
there. Won’t be hard to find the votes.
ME: But it will take months. And the
country will be put through a ringer.
HE: I know. That’s the worst
part.
ME: I mean, we could have civil war.
HE: Hell, no. That’s what he wants,
but no chance. His approvals will be in the cellar. America will be glad to get
rid of him.
ME: I hope you’re right.
HE: He’s a dangerous menace. He’ll
be gone. And then he’ll be indicted, and Pence will pardon him. But the state
investigations may put him in the clinker. Good riddance.
Robert
B. Reich is Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of
California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at the Blum Center for Developing
Economies. He served as Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration, for
which Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries
of the twentieth century. He has written fifteen books, including the best
sellers "Aftershock", "The Work of Nations," and "Beyond
Outrage," and, his most recent, "The Common Good," which is
available in bookstores now. He is also a founding editor of the American
Prospect magazine, chairman of Common Cause, a member of the American Academy
of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the award-winning documentary,
"Inequality For All." He's co-creator of the Netflix original
documentary "Saving Capitalism," which is streaming now.