Extreme
weather and geopolitics major drivers of increasing 'food shocks'
University of Tasmania
Research, published in the
journal Nature Sustainability, identified 226 food production
shocks across 134 nations over the 53-year period, noting an increasing
frequency of shocks across all sectors on a global scale.
Lead author Richard Cottrell said
extreme weather was a major cause of shocks to crops and livestock,
highlighting the vulnerability of food production to climate and weather
volatility.
"In recent decades we have become increasingly familiar with images in the media of disasters such as drought and famine around the world," Mr Cottrell said.
"Our study confirms that food
production shocks have become more frequent, posing a growing danger to global
food production.
"We looked at the full range of
global food production systems, covering crops, livestock, fisheries and
aquaculture.
"We found that crops and
livestock are slightly more shock-prone than fisheries and aquaculture, and
some regions, such as South Asia, are more frequently affected than others.
"While the number of food
shocks fluctuates from year to year, the long-term trend shows they are happening
more often."
Mr Cottrell said the increasing
frequency of food shocks gave people and communities less recovery time between
events and eroded their resilience.
"Reduced recovery time hinders
coping strategies such as accumulating food or assets for use during times of
hardship.
"Combined with adverse climate
conditions, conflict related shocks to food production across sub-Saharan
Africa and the Middle East have led to a rise in global hunger since 2010.
"Land-based crop and livestock
production are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as
drought, which are expected to become more frequent and intense with climate
change.
"However, marine-based food
production is not immune from shocks.
"Overfishing was responsible
for 45 per cent of shocks detected in landing data, while disruptions to
aquaculture production have risen faster and to a higher level than any other
sector since the 1980s.
"Globalised trade and the
dependence of many countries on food imports mean that food shocks are a global
problem, and the international community faces a significant challenge to build
resilience.
"This can be done through
measures such as investing in climate-smart food systems, and building food
reserves in import-dependent nations so they are better able to deal with the
impact of disruption caused by problems such as climate change," Mr
Cottrell said.