By TODD McLEISH/ecoRI News contributor
A
year after the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale population
produced zero calves for the first time on record, the animals have given birth
to seven calves so far this winter.
But that number is still far too few to convince scientists that the population is rebounding.
But that number is still far too few to convince scientists that the population is rebounding.
“Without
concerted efforts to reduce the effects of human activities, this species is
likely to go functionally extinct in about 20 years,” Scott Kraus, senior
science advisor at the New England Aquarium, said during testimony March 7 at a
congressional hearing examining the threats to right whales.
The
global population of North Atlantic right whales, which currently stands at
about 400, was growing steadily in the 1990s and 2000s, including a record year
in 2009 when 39 calves were born. But reproduction rates have slowed
precipitously since then.
“Until the average calving rate is over 10, I’m not going to feel confident,” said Robert Kenney, a marine mammal researcher and retired marine scientist at the University of Rhode Island’s Graduate School of Oceanography.
Kenney
said the most likely explanation for the reduced birth rate is
that female right whales aren’t finding enough to eat, resulting in a longer
interval between pregnancies.
“Female
right whales nurse their calves for a year, then they take a year off to
recover and build up their fat, and then they get pregnant again,” he said.
“In good times, pregnancies are three years apart. But if they’re having difficulty building up their blubber layer, then the resting year stretches out. In 2017, all five of those that gave birth had an average interval of 10 years.”
“In good times, pregnancies are three years apart. But if they’re having difficulty building up their blubber layer, then the resting year stretches out. In 2017, all five of those that gave birth had an average interval of 10 years.”
The
uptick in the birth rate this year is probably an indication of successful
feeding in 2016 and 2017, according to Kenney.
“There’s
nothing we can do about how many copepods there are in the water and where they
are and how the oceanography compacts them into patches that are good for right
whales to eat,” he said. “If the climate keeps getting warmer, things are just
as likely to get worse as better.”
The
other side of the right whale story is the high mortality rate. According to
Kraus, from 2010 to 2014 the rate of right whale deaths or serious injuries due
to human activities doubled that of the previous decade.
In 2017 and 2018, 20 right whales are known to have died, mostly as a result of ship strikes and entanglements in fishing gear, reducing the total population by nearly 5 percent. The actual number of deaths each year is probably far greater than the documented deaths.
In 2017 and 2018, 20 right whales are known to have died, mostly as a result of ship strikes and entanglements in fishing gear, reducing the total population by nearly 5 percent. The actual number of deaths each year is probably far greater than the documented deaths.
“This
type of rapid decline in the population has not been seen since the period of
active right whaling prior to 1750,” Kraus said.
Fifteen
years ago, the leading cause of death for right whales was collisions with
large ships, but that has improved in recent years thanks to the rerouting of
shipping lanes in some areas and the adoption of a reduced-speed regulation for
commercial ships along the East Coast.
Today,
more right whales die after becoming entangled in fishing gear than from any
other cause. Kraus said at least 83 percent of right whales have entanglement
scars, and 59 percent have been entangled more than once.
In
November, Kenney published an analysis of right whale mortality since 1990 and
found that if there was no fishing gear in the water, the North Atlantic right
whale population would be steadily increasing.
Most
of the 12 right whale deaths in 2017 were caused by entanglements in fishing
gear from the snow crab fishery in the Gulf of St. Lawrence between
Newfoundland and New Brunswick, where fishermen use large pots and heavy ropes
that easily entangle whales.
Kenney said that is an area that few right whales used to visit until food became scarce elsewhere in recent years.
Kenney said that is an area that few right whales used to visit until food became scarce elsewhere in recent years.
“Last
year, the Canadian government took action — they were much more responsive than
the American government has ever been — and closed down the fishery as soon as
the right whales showed up,” Kenney said.
As
a result, no right whale deaths were recorded in the Gulf of St. Lawrence last
year.
Both
Kenney and Kraus also noted another big concern facing the right whale
population: much shorter life spans. The whales, which formerly lived more than
70 years, now have a life expectancy of just 30 to 40 years because of
human-caused mortality. And females are dying much earlier than males, reducing
the number of calves they can produce in their lifetime.
“It’s
unlikely that right whales die of old age anymore,” Kraus said.
What
can be done to reduce the mortality rate? The scientists say the first step is
the development of “ropeless” fishing.
“The
number and severity of entanglements is going up, probably due to improvements
in rope strength and rope quality,” Kenney said. “Ropes are stronger and
lasting longer, which is good for fishermen but not good for whales.
“We’ve
got to figure out some way to fish that doesn’t involve having ropes in the
water. That’s one answer, but it’s a really complicated answer because right
now it’s illegal. Even if technology was perfected, it’s illegal to set lobster
pots in the water without something at the surface to mark its location.”
If
the entanglement issue can be resolved, then the whales may be able to find a
way to recover on their own.
“Right
whales have adapted to changing climate for the entire 5 million years of their
existence,” Kenney said. “They’ve been through this. They can adapt. They may
go through natural periods of really low reproduction like they’re doing now,
but if there’s no excess mortality on top of it, they’re more likely to make it
through.”