Use the map to see what your climate will be like
University of Maryland Center for
Environmental Science
Under current high emissions the
average urban dweller is going to have to drive more than 500 miles to the south
to find a climate similar to their home city by 2080.
Credit: Matthew
Fitzpatrick/University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
In one generation, the climate
experienced in many North American cities is projected to change to that of
locations hundreds of miles away -- or to a new climate unlike any found in
North America today.
A new study and interactive web application aim to help
the public understand how climate change will impact the lives of people who
live in urban areas of the United States and Canada.
These new climate analyses
match the expected future climate in each city with the current climate of
another location, providing a relatable picture of what is likely in store.
Scientists analyzed 540 urban areas
that encompassed approximately 250 million inhabitants in the United States and
Canada. For each urban area, they mapped the similarity between that city's
future climate expected by the 2080s and contemporary climate in the western
hemisphere north of the equator using 12 measures of climate, including minimum
and maximum temperature and precipitation during the four seasons.
The study also mapped climate
differences under two emission trajectories: unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5),
the scenario most in line with what might be expected given current policies
and the speed of global action, and mitigated emissions (RCP4.5), which assumes
policies are put in place to limit emissions, such as the Paris Agreement.
Climate-analog mapping is a
statistical technique that matches the expected future climate at one location
-- your city of residence, for instance -- with the current climate of another
familiar location to provide a place-based understanding of climate change.
Combining climate mapping with the interactive web application provides a
powerful tool to communicate how climate change may impact the lives of a large
portion of the population of the United States and Canada.
"We can use this technique to
translate a future forecast into something we can better conceptualize and link
to our own experiences," said Fitzpatrick. "It's my hope that people
have that 'wow' moment, and it sinks in for the first time the scale of the
changes we're expecting in a single generation."
The study found that by the 2080s,
even if limits are placed on emissions, the climate of North American urban
areas will feel substantially different, and in many cases completely unlike
contemporary climates found anywhere in the western hemisphere north of the
equator.
If emissions continue unabated throughout the 21st century, the
climate of North American urban areas will become, on average, most like the
contemporary climate of locations about 500 miles away and mainly to the south.
In the eastern U.S., nearly all urban areas, including Boston, New York, and
Philadelphia, will become most similar to contemporary climates to the south
and southwest. Climates of most urban areas in the central and western U.S.
will become most similar to contemporary climates found to the south or southeast.
"Under the business as usual
emissions the average urban dweller is going to have to drive nearly 1,000 km
to the south to find a climate like that expected in their home city by
2080," said Fitzpatrick. "Not only is climate changing, but climates
that don't presently exist in North America will be prevalent in a lot of urban
areas."
The climate of cities in the
northeast will tend to feel more like the humid subtropical climates typical of
parts of the Midwest or southeastern U.S. today -- warmer and wetter in all
seasons.
For instance, unless we take action to mitigate emissions, Washington,
D.C. will feel more like northern Mississippi.
The climates of western cities
are expected to become more like those of the desert Southwest or southern California
-- warmer in all seasons, with changes in the amount and seasonal distribution
of precipitation. San Francisco's climate will resemble that of Los Angeles.
New York will feel more like northern Arkansas.
"Similar efforts to communicate
climate change often focus on temperature only, but climate is more than just
temperature. It also includes the amount precipitation an area receives, when
it falls during the year, and how much arrives as snow versus rain," said
Fitzpatrick. "Climate change will lead to not only warming, but also will
alter precipitation patterns."
Search the interactive climate map
for your location at: www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates.
The paper, "Contemporary
climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st
century," by Matt Fitzpatrick of the University of Maryland Center for
Environmental Science and Robert Dunn of North Carolina State University, is
published in Nature Communications on February 12.
