Can we feed 11 billion people while preventing the spread of
infectious disease?
University of Notre Dame
 |
| Rhode Island was dramatically changed by the huge influx of Irish immigrants fleeing famine |
But
a new article published in Nature
Sustainability describes how the increase in population and the need
to feed everyone will also, ultimately, give rise to human infectious disease,
a situation the authors of the paper consider "two of the most formidable
ecological and public health challenges of the 21st century."
The
article, "Emerging human infectious disease and the links to global food
production," is the first to draw connections between future population
growth, agricultural development and infectious disease.
"If
we start exploring how increasing population and agriculture will affect human
diseases, we can prepare for and mitigate these effects," said Jason Rohr,
the Ludmilla F., Stephen J. and Robert T. Galla College Professor of Biological
Sciences at the University of Notre Dame.
"We need to anticipate some of the problems that may arise from an explosion of human population in the developing world."
"We need to anticipate some of the problems that may arise from an explosion of human population in the developing world."
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| Hunger and hardship has forced thousands to seek asylum in the US, despite hostility and brutal actions by the Trump administration |
According
to the article, the fastest area of population growth expected by the year 2100
will occur in the developing world where disease control, surveillance and
access to health care already face significant challenges.
Currently, some estimates suggest that infectious disease accounts for 75 percent of deaths in developing countries in tropical regions.
Each year in the United States, an estimated 48 million people suffer from foodborne infections, and foodborne illnesses have been linked to imported food from developing countries -- where sanitation and food safety is lacking or poorly enforced.
Of that number, 128,000 are hospitalized and approximately 3,000 people each year die from foodborne infection.
Currently, some estimates suggest that infectious disease accounts for 75 percent of deaths in developing countries in tropical regions.
Each year in the United States, an estimated 48 million people suffer from foodborne infections, and foodborne illnesses have been linked to imported food from developing countries -- where sanitation and food safety is lacking or poorly enforced.
Of that number, 128,000 are hospitalized and approximately 3,000 people each year die from foodborne infection.
As
the world's population grows, the state of rural economies, use of
agrochemicals and exploitation of natural resources, among other factors, are
poised to further contribute to infectious disease outbreaks.
"There are many modern examples where high human contact with farm animals or wild game is a likely cause of new human diseases that have become global pandemics," such as avian and swine flu, and mad cow disease, Rohr said.
"There are many modern examples where high human contact with farm animals or wild game is a likely cause of new human diseases that have become global pandemics," such as avian and swine flu, and mad cow disease, Rohr said.
Rohr,
who also works as part of Notre Dame's Environmental Change Initiative and the
Eck Institute for Global Health, studies human schistosomiasis, a worm
infection transmitted from snails to humans in many tropical and subtropical
parts of the world.
Through
that research, he has seen firsthand how farming practices can affect disease
because the snails thrive in waters with algae that grow prolifically in areas
of agricultural runoff containing fertilizer.
The primary predators of snails are prawns that migrate to estuaries to breed, but these estuaries often become unreachable because of dams installed to facilitate the irrigation of cropland.
The primary predators of snails are prawns that migrate to estuaries to breed, but these estuaries often become unreachable because of dams installed to facilitate the irrigation of cropland.
"There
is the perfect storm with schistosomiasis: Agriculture has decimated snail
predators, irrigation ditches provide more snail habitat, and fertilizer use
causes the proliferation of snail food," he noted.
"Agriculture is important for nutrition that can be crucial for combating disease, but the right balance needs to be struck."
"Agriculture is important for nutrition that can be crucial for combating disease, but the right balance needs to be struck."
Rohr
and collaborators offer several potential solutions to various challenges, such
as improving hygiene to combat the overuse of antibiotics to promote the growth
of farm animals. They also suggest that farmers add genetic variability to
their crops and animals to reduce epidemics caused in part by monocultures and
too many closely related animals living in close quarters.
Other
solutions include enhancing education and health literacy, which has been
documented as a major factor in reducing infections.
The researchers also suggest investing in predictive mathematical models that integrate associations between agricultural practices and infectious diseases. These models could forecast risk across spatial scales to facilitate targeting preventive and mitigating measures.
The researchers also suggest investing in predictive mathematical models that integrate associations between agricultural practices and infectious diseases. These models could forecast risk across spatial scales to facilitate targeting preventive and mitigating measures.
The
research was funded by the National Science Foundation, National Institutes of
Health, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as grants from the
University of California, University of Minnesota and the Stanford Global
Development and Poverty Initiative.
