Scientists
declare climate emergency, establish global indicators for effective action
Oregon State University
A
global coalition of scientists led by William J. Ripple and Christopher Wolf of
Oregon State University says "untold human suffering" is unavoidable
without deep and lasting shifts in human activities that contribute to
greenhouse gas emissions and other factors related to climate change.
"Despite
40 years of major global negotiations, we have continued to conduct business as
usual and have failed to address this crisis," said Ripple, distinguished
professor of ecology in the OSU College of Forestry. "Climate change has
arrived and is accelerating faster than many scientists expected."
In a paper
published today in BioScience, the authors, along with more than
11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries, declare a climate emergency,
present graphics showing trends as vital signs against which to measure
progress, and provide a set of effective mitigating actions.
The scientists point to six areas in which humanity should take immediate steps to slow down the effects of a warming planet:
1.
Energy. Implement massive
conservation practices; replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables; leave
remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground; eliminate subsidies to fossil
fuel companies; and impose carbon fees that are high enough to restrain the use
of fossil fuels.
2.
Short-lived pollutants. Swiftly cut
emissions of methane, soot, hydrofluorocarbons and other short-lived climate
pollutants; doing so has the potential to reduce the short-term warming trend
by more than 50% over the next few decades.
3.
Nature. Restore and protect
ecosystems such as forests, grasslands, peatlands, wetlands and mangroves, and
allow a larger share of these ecosystems to reach their ecological potential
for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas.
4.
Food. Eat more plants and consume
fewer animal products. The dietary shift would significantly reduce emissions
of methane and other greenhouse gases and free up agricultural lands for
growing human food rather than livestock feed. Reducing food waste is also
critical -- the scientists say at least one-third of all food produced ends up
as garbage.
5.
Economy. Convert the economy to one
that is carbon free to address human dependence on the biosphere and shift
goals away from the growth of gross domestic product and the pursuit of affluence.
Curb exploitation of ecosystems to maintain long-term biosphere sustainability.
6.
Population. Stabilize a global human
population that is increasing by more than 200,000 people a day, using
approaches that ensure social and economic justice.
"Mitigating
and adapting to climate change while honoring the diversity of humans entails
major transformations in the ways our global society functions and interacts
with natural ecosystems," the paper states.
"We are encouraged by a recent surge of concern. Governmental bodies are making climate emergency declarations. Schoolchildren are striking. Ecocide lawsuits are proceeding in the courts. Grassroots citizen movements are demanding change, and many countries, states and provinces, cities, and businesses are responding. As an Alliance of World Scientists, we stand ready to assist decision makers in a just transition to a sustainable and equitable future."
"We are encouraged by a recent surge of concern. Governmental bodies are making climate emergency declarations. Schoolchildren are striking. Ecocide lawsuits are proceeding in the courts. Grassroots citizen movements are demanding change, and many countries, states and provinces, cities, and businesses are responding. As an Alliance of World Scientists, we stand ready to assist decision makers in a just transition to a sustainable and equitable future."
The graphs
of vital signs in the paper illustrate several key climate-change indicators
and factors over the last 40 years, since scientists from 50 nations met at the
First World Climate Conference in Geneva in 1979.
In recent
decades, multiple other global assemblies have agreed that urgent action is
essential, but greenhouse gas emissions are still rapidly rising. Other ominous
signs from human activities include sustained increases in per-capita meat
production, global tree cover loss and number of airline passengers.
There are
also some encouraging signs -- including decreases in global birth rates and
decelerated forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon, and increases in wind and
solar power -- but even those measures are tinged with worry. The decline in
birth rates has slowed over the last 20 years, for example, and the pace of
Amazon forest loss appears to be starting to increase again.
"Global
surface temperature, ocean heat content, extreme weather and its costs, sea
level, ocean acidity, and area burned in the United States are all
rising," Ripple said.
"Globally, ice is rapidly disappearing as demonstrated by decreases in minimum summer Arctic sea ice, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and glacier thickness. All of these rapid changes highlight the urgent need for action."
"Globally, ice is rapidly disappearing as demonstrated by decreases in minimum summer Arctic sea ice, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and glacier thickness. All of these rapid changes highlight the urgent need for action."
Joining
Ripple and Wolf, a postdoctoral scholar in the OSU College of Forestry, as authors
are Thomas M. Newsome of the University of Sydney, Phoebe Barnard of the
Biological Conservation Institute and the University of Cape Town, and William
R. Moomaw of Tufts University.
