Computer
models may hold answers, research says
Brown University
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The study indicates
that global policy decisions about greenhouse gas emissions, and a range of
policy decisions that determine where people live and work in coastal areas,
will determine whether people need to migrate as a result of sea level rise and
where they may go — and the best way to weigh the potential effects of
these policies is to build new climate change models, computer-generated
predictions of how and when global temperatures and landscapes will change.
“This paper homes in
on policy as the key to managing climate change impacts,” said Elizabeth
Fussell, a contributor to the paper and an associate professor of population
studies (research) at Brown University’s Population
Studies and Training Center. “Analyzing the effects of current and
potential policies on sea-level rise can bring real data, real investigations
and real analyses to the table in political discussions that will shape our
future.”
The report comes from Fussell and 19 other members of an international research network assembled by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center at the University of Maryland. The network comprises global experts on sea level rise and environment-related migration from the U.S., the United Kingdom and Europe.
Lead author David
Wrathall, an assistant professor at Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and
Atmospheric Sciences, said that global policy decisions will play a
major role in determining not only how many people will migrate away from the
coast due to climate change but also where those migrants will go.
“We’ve been looking at
this problem the wrong way,” Wrathall said. “We’ve been asking how many people
will be vulnerable to sea level rise and assuming the same number of people
will migrate. In reality, policies being made today and moving forward will
exert a strong influence in shaping migration. People will move in very
specific ways because of these policies.”
Wrathall, Fussell and
the research team suggest that policymakers who are seeking to understand how
their decisions affect migration cannot afford to experiment on vulnerable
populations in the real world with expensive and potentially dangerous
policies.
Instead, decision-makers can anticipate the effects of realistic policy alternatives using simulations thanks to advances in computation and modeling, taking into account a wide range of economic policies, planning decisions, infrastructure investments and adaptation measures.
Instead, decision-makers can anticipate the effects of realistic policy alternatives using simulations thanks to advances in computation and modeling, taking into account a wide range of economic policies, planning decisions, infrastructure investments and adaptation measures.
For example, Wrathall
said, some current tax codes incentivize businesses to locate near ports, which
could potentially put whole industries at risk in the face of sea level rise.
High interest rates could prevent some homeowners from borrowing money to protect their coastal homes, which may cause them to leave. And global decisions about the management of greenhouse gas emissions could impact how quickly the planet warms and sea levels rise.
High interest rates could prevent some homeowners from borrowing money to protect their coastal homes, which may cause them to leave. And global decisions about the management of greenhouse gas emissions could impact how quickly the planet warms and sea levels rise.
“Modeling allows us to
look at all kinds of scenarios to identify the specific policies that might
work to help people migrate and anticipate the policies that cause problems,”
Wrathall said.
The researchers’ report is the result of a three-year project that sought to unite the expertise of social scientists, environmental scientists and computer modelers to determine the best way to predict the future effects of sea level rise. The research was funded by the University of Maryland and the National Science Foundation.
“With this paper, we
have advanced an interdisciplinary conversation on how to meaningfully predict
the effects of sea level rise on people,” Fussell said. “Whatever losses and
damage are caused by sea level rise, they are human losses — so
understanding how humans react to changes, and how policy drives those changes,
is crucial.”