Hurricane
season combined with COVID-19 pandemic could create perfect storm
University
of Central Florida
When
extreme climate conditions interact with stressors to social systems, such as
the COVID-19 pandemic, the consequences could be severe unless experts from
diverse backgrounds work together to develop comprehensive solutions to combat
their negative impacts.
That's
the recommendation of a new article in Nature Climate Change published and co-authored by a University of Central Florida researcher.
Thomas
Wahl, an assistant professor in UCF's Department of Civil, Environmental and
Construction Engineering and a member of UCF's National Center for Integrated
Coastal Research, is one of 14 experts with diverse backgrounds who authored
the article.
"In the perspective article my input mainly focused on the impacts of connected extremes on the water sector," Wahl says.
"With my research group at UCF, we have extensively worked on many different projects focused on compound flooding, when, for example, storm surges coincide with extreme rainfall or high river discharge."
The
article brought together scientists and stakeholder representatives with
different backgrounds, ranging from the natural sciences to social sciences,
public health and engineering.
The
authors focused on four main sectors -- food, water, health and infrastructure
-- where connected extremes often lead to unforeseen impacts.
Examples
of connected extremes include the impact of Hurricane Maria in 2017 on Puerto
Rico's under-maintained infrastructure, limited budget and aging population,
and the spring 2011 Mississippi River floods in which water was released to
protect urban areas at the detriment of agricultural lands.
A
present example could be the COVID-19 pandemic and the current hurricane
season, Wahl says.
"The
COVID-19 crisis will very likely increase the impacts associated with the
climatic extreme events that will inevitably occur somewhere across the globe
over the next weeks or months or already have occurred," Wahl says.
"For
example, shelters cannot operate at full capacity, health care systems are
already under pressure, and emergency funds are depleted."
The
researcher says many of the most impactful natural hazards experienced over the
past decade could be considered connected extremes, where either different
factors in the physical climate system combined in unfortunate ways or the
impacts were made worse by interactions between physical and societal systems.
"It's
important to recognize and treat connected extremes as such, and for scientists
from different fields to engage directly with stakeholders and decision makers
to develop new, robust and flexible policies to better combat their negative
impacts," Wahl says.
Wahl
earned his doctorate in civil engineering from the University of Siegen,
Germany, and joined UCF in 2017.