Effective government saves lives in disasters
Cornell University
Elizabeth
Tennant, postdoctoral associate in economics at Cornell University, wondered:
What made the difference?
To quantify the relationship between natural disaster outcomes and the effectiveness of governments and other institutions, Tennant and co-author Elisabeth Gilmore, associate professor in the Department of International Development, Community and Environment at Clark University, analyzed data from more than 1,000 tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2016.
They found, in a paper published Nov. 3 in PNAS, that
effective national and local governments are associated with fewer deaths from
tropical cyclone disasters -- even in countries with similar levels of wealth
and development.
Moreover, storms
concentrated in areas with weaker public services, as indicated by elevated
infant mortality rates, are especially deadly, the researchers found.
"These results suggest that policies and programs to enhance institutional capacity and governance can support risk reduction from extreme weather events," Tennant wrote.
One of the
original motivations of the study, Tennant said, was to better understand how
effective institutions and governments can moderate the increasing risks of
future extreme weather events due to climate change. This research contributes
to the body of evidence that institutions are an important foundation for
climate adaptation, Tennant said.
There are many
examples indicating that strong institutions -- including government -- play a
critical role in protecting populations from adverse effects of natural
disasters, Tennant said. But it is much more difficult to determine how
universal this relationship is, she said, because there is so much variation in
the frequency and severity of storms.
Natural hazards
such as cyclones, the researcher wrote, result in disasters only when
vulnerable human systems are exposed to hazardous conditions. In their
analysis, Tennant and Gilmore explicitly accounted for hazard exposure,
connecting the analysis of governance and other indicators of well-being to
estimates of the severity and exposure to the tropical cyclone hazard.
They used
several data sources to gather information about people, places, events and
storms, including: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; the
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Emergency Events Database;
and World Governance Indicators.
"We
developed an approach where we carefully modeled the extent of the storms to
match them to the measures of governance and living conditions in affected
areas," Tennant said. "This helps us to identify what makes people
vulnerable."
Tennant first
became interested in the intersections of disasters and development during her
time as a Peace Corps volunteer in Honduras, where resources were constrained.
"I saw how
a decade after the devastating Hurricane Mitch [1998], the disaster still
affected the local communities and their well-being," Tennant said.
"So what does disaster preparedness look like in a country where many
people are without secure access to nutritional food and clean drinking water
now? To what extent can investing in health, education and the quality of
governments and institutions also serve as a useful foundation for disaster
risk reduction activities?"
While the study
does not suggest specific approaches to improving the quality and effectiveness
of institutions, it does highlight their importance, Tennant said.
"Ensuring that local institutions are involved and accountable for the
delivery of public services may have multiple benefits," she said, "including
reducing deaths from natural disasters."
And while the
researchers completed the study before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
results are consistent with lessons emerging from the virus, Tennant said:
"In our view, the pandemic has provided an immediate example of how
government effectiveness plays an important role in shaping societal risks,
regardless of a country's wealth."
