Study of non-COVID-19 deaths shows 2020 increase in several demographics
BY LIZ AHLBERG TOUCHSTONEMarch through May saw a significant increase in deaths over previous years – and not just from COVID-19, says a new study from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
When deaths
attributed to COVID-19 were removed from the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention totals, the death rate in several demographics outpaced the same
period in 2019, the study found. The timeframe represents the first three
months of response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.
“We know that
the pandemic is selectively taking lives. It also seems to be causing ancillary
deaths that are not directly caused by COVID-19, but are a consequence of the
fact that we have COVID-19 in our society, in our health care system, in our
jobs, in our lives. We’re trying to capture those effects as data,” Jacobson
said.
The researchers
used publicly available data from the CDC that are sorted by age and gender.
Full numbers for 2019 are not yet publicly available, so the researchers
calculated 2019 death estimates using 2018 CDC data and 2019 population
estimates from the Census Bureau. They then compared those numbers with the
CDC’s provisional non-COVID-19 death numbers for 2020.
Even though the
researchers chose a more stringent measure of statistical significance than
commonly used in such analyses, they found a significant increase in excess
deaths in 2020 for men between 15 and 59 years of age, and for women between 25
and 44.
“Although we
don’t know why, deaths increased to a greater degree than expected. As someone
who has spent their career in medicine and public health, this concerns me,”
Jokela said. “The concern is that excess deaths will continue to occur during
the pandemic, whether it’s because people are delaying care for other
conditions or because some COVID-19 deaths are going undetected. This is a
phenomenon that requires ongoing monitoring and investigation.”
There was,
however, one demographic that saw a decrease in deaths – females between the
ages of 5 and 14.
“The only
explanation we can come up with is that if you look at the deaths that occur in
that age group, the preponderance of them are accidents. Thus, the shutdowns in
much of the country appear to have had a protective effect on young girls,”
Jacobson said.
Jacobson and
Jokela continue to monitor the data as the CDC updates it. They plan to perform
a six-month analysis for March through August, and eventually the whole year.
They also urge public health officials to make data available and study
non-COVID-19 causes of death to gain insights into the factors leading to
excess deaths in each demographic.
“Is it because
people are neglecting routine medical exams? Are they delaying treatment for
other conditions, such as cancer or heart disease? Are mental health issues
going unaddressed? Information about the causes of death in different age
groups would be very useful, because then we can look at the appropriate
countermeasures to reduce preventable deaths,” Jacobson said.