Updated analysis of U.S. COVID-19 deaths shows drops, disparities in average lifespans
University of Southern California
An updated analysis of American COVID-19 deaths throughout 2020 reveals an even bigger drop in average life expectancy as well as still-substantial disparities by race and ethnicity.
Lead author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral scholar at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, and coauthor Noreen Goldman of Princeton University first examined the pandemic's effect on American life expectancy in October 2020.
Their initial study, published in Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences in January 2021, showed the largest
single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years and the lowest life
expectancy estimated since 2003.
The updated analysis, which included the more than 380,000 US
COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and used 2018 life expectancies as a comparison,
indicates that COVID-19 reduced overall life expectancy by 1.31 years (up from
the initial estimate of 1.13 years lost) to 77.43 years. The reductions in
average lifespan are more than three times as large for Latinos (3.03 years)
and twice as large for the Black population (1.90 years) compared to whites
(0.94 years).
EDITOR'S NOTE: Another report issued at the same time as this one by Virginia Commonwealth University researchers, had worse numbers. From their summary:
U.S. life expectancy decreased by 1.87 years between 2018 and 2020, according to new research. The numbers are worse for people of color. On average, whereas life expectancy among white Americans decreased by 1.36 years in 2020, it decreased by 3.25 years in Black Americans and 3.88 years in Hispanic Americans.
"Impacts on life expectancy are likely to be even larger once excess mortality from other causes is taken into account." Andrasfay cautioned.
The changing geography of the pandemic's impact since last fall
has made a significant difference in total average life expectancy loss as well
as for whites, who were previously projected to lose 0.68 years on average.
"Since our October 2020 projections, disproportionately
white Midwestern and Mountain states experienced surges in COVID-19 cases and
deaths," Andrasfay explained. "As a result, the disparities are not
quite as large as we initially projected, but are still striking."
As noted in the previous study, Black and Latino Americans have
experienced a disproportionate burden of coronavirus infections and deaths,
reflecting persistent structural inequalities that heighten risk of exposure to
and death from COVID-19. The particularly large decrease in average life
expectancy among Latinos likely stems from social and economic inequities that
result in both higher exposure to infection and higher fatality among those
infected. Compared to Black and white populations, Latinos have lower rates of
health insurance, are more likely to live in multi-generational or crowded
households and are more likely to hold frontline jobs with COVID-19 exposure
risks, Andrasfay noted.
"Life expectancy is a metric of population-level mortality
in a given year, and it is sensitive to deaths at younger ages," Andrasfay
explained. "Though COVID-19 disproportionately killed older Americans,
substantial numbers of younger Black and Latino Americans had their lives taken
by COVID-19, which contributed to greater life expectancy reductions for these
populations."
Andrasfay and Goldman also examined data from the first few
months of 2021, which showed that average life expectancy is still affected by
the pandemic.
"Though it is too early to estimate 2021 life expectancy, the deaths that occurred in just the first three months of 2021 already indicate that 2021 will have reduced life expectancy compared to pre-pandemic levels, and substantial racial and ethnic disparities in these reductions will persist," Andrasfay said.
"The ultimate impact of COVID-19 on 2021 US
life expectancy will depend on whether there is sufficient and equitable vaccination
across the US. Looking to the future beyond COVID-19, reducing racial
disparities in life expectancy requires investments beyond healthcare,
including a commitment to make the economy more equitable."