Thursday, July 8, 2021

There's a storm a-comin'

Prep for wind, rain and power outages as Tropical Storm Elsa approaches

By Will Collette

National Weather Service forecast for Charlestown. Click to enlarge.

Charlestown is under a under a Tropical Storm Warning from now until the storm passes.

The current track puts the storm heading directly at us, likely to pass very near us sometime Friday morning.

We will catch the left side of the storm, the one that produces a lot of rain. Heavy wind usually happens on the right side.

The big question for us and how much damage, tree loss, flooding and power outages is how much rain, speed of the winds and duration of its stay with us.

Here's the Weather Services' detailed forecast for Charlestown: 

Click to enlarge

Here's the Big Picture:

Purple lines are the areas under Tropical Storm Warning. This graphic shows you the track, the impact cone and the cone for storm-related effects, plus the most likely time of arrival.

Specific hazards to those of us who live near the coast from Westerly to Narragansett:
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Narragansett
    - Westerly

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
      possible
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 40 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph - [but not forecast]
        - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
          underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - [but not forecast]
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes