Suitable growing regions for coffee, cashews, and avocados predicted to shift as Earth warms
PLOS
A new analysis predicts that, as climate change progresses, the most suitable regions for growing coffee arabica, cashews, and avocados will decline in some of the main countries that produce these crops. Roman Grüter and colleagues at Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Switzerland, present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on January 26, 2022.
Coffee,
cashews, and avocados are important crops for consumers and for tropical
small-scale farmers around the world. Extensive research suggests that climate
change will reduce suitability for growing coffee arabica—the dominant coffee
species—in most regions where it is currently grown. However, such studies have
not considered land and soil characteristics that could also impact
suitability. Meanwhile, no studies have addressed how climate change will
impact avocado and cashew suitability at a global scale.
To address these knowledge gaps, Grüter and colleagues combined climate change projections and soil factors to computationally model and predict how suitable different regions worldwide will be for growing coffee, cashews, and avocados in 2050. They used projections from 14 global climate models under three different future emission scenarios and incorporated land and soil requirements for the crops, such as pH, texture, and slope.
The
analysis predicts that some regions will become more suitable and some less
suitable for each crop. Coffee is the most susceptible of the three, with
predicted declines in suitability in all major producing regions, including
Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia. For cashews, highly suitable regions
are predicted to decrease in some major producing countries, including India,
Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin. Suitable areas for avocados will also decline for
some major producers, such as the Dominican Republic, Peru, and Indonesia.
Meanwhile,
areas suitable for all three crops may expand at higher altitudes and
latitudes, especially for cashews and avocados. Areas with greater future
suitability are located in regions such as the United States, Argentina, China,
and East Africa.
These
findings suggest the need for climate change adaptations in major producing
countries, such as breeding for varieties adapted to higher temperatures or
drought. Strategies will also be needed to mitigate the environmental impact of
any expansion to new locations.
The
authors add: “The study presents the first global assessment of climate change
impacts on cashew and avocado suitability. For both cashew and avocado, areas
suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main
producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease.”
