Preparedness is key during the peak months of hurricane season
NOAA
Collage depicts hurricane storm surge, Acting NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Jamie Rhome presenting a forecast, evacuation route sign and Hurricane Hunter pilot flying into a storm. (NOAA)
Atmospheric
and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane
season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate
Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
“I
urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane
season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will
continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities
become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane
season and beyond.”
NOAA
forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic
hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65%
chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the
chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.
“We’re
just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane
development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA
Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and
accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of
approaching storms.”
NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
So
far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic
Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven
become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
This
outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast.
Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are
currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially
reaching a coastline.
There
are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active
hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest
of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate,
or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña,
weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely
above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active
hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for
Atlantic hurricanes.
“Communities
and families should prepare now for the remainder of what is still expected to
be an active hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National
Weather Service. 
The 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World
Meteorological Organization. (NOAA)
Learn
about NOAA’s hurricane science and forecasting expertise by viewing our Hurricane Season Media Resource Guide and
stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest
about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.
“This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season—the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait. That’s why everyone should take proactive steps to get ready by downloading the FEMA app and visiting Ready.gov or Listo.gov for preparedness tips. And most importantly, make sure you understand your local risk and follow directions from your state and local officials.”