It's time to get busy, Democrats. It's time to end the Trump madness. It's time to save democracy.
1.
Trump is on the ballot: The midterms are no longer a
referendum on Joe Biden; now they are a referendum on Donald Trump. Say what
you will about Trump, he has a unique way of making himself the center of
attention. The first eight months of 2022 have seen the political focus shift
from Biden to Trump. Trump's retention of classified material and the FBI raid
on Mar-a-Lago have made his personality the center of political attention. In
many congressional contests, there's a Trump proxy on the ballot: voters aren't
being asked to simply vote for Republican John Doe; they are being asked,
"Do you want Trumpism to continue?" In many instances, the answer is
"No."
Trump is a
divisive figure. According to the 538 website,
55% of voters view him unfavorably. NBC News reports that
57% of voters believe the Department of Justice Trump investigations should
continue. A recent NPR poll found
that 61% of voters do not want him to run in 2024—notably, 67% of Independents.
Having Trump on
the ballot will affect the outcome of closely contested congressional races. We
just saw this in the recent race for Alaska's lone congressional seat.
The contestants were Sarah Palin (Trump's candidate); Nick Begich (a Republican
alternative), and Mary Peltola (Democrat). What should have been a safe
Republican seat went to Peltola because Palin and Begich split the vote—the
final tally was aided by a byzantine rank-choice voting process. Trump
interfered and, in a closely contested race, his candidate lost.
We've seen that pattern repeated in the run-up to the November 8 election. In the Republican primary, there's a Trump candidate and a "moderate" Republican candidate. More often than not, the Trump candidate wins only to be defeated by a Democrat in the general election. Trump appeals to Republicans but not Democrats or Independents.
Trump is a GOP
problem not only because he is divisive, but also because he is maniacally
self-absorbed, In a recent "joint" Pennsylvania appearance, Trump spoke
for two hours and gave Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate candidate, two minutes.
Trump raises lots of money but the vast majority goes to the "Donald J.
Trump Improvement fund."
2.
Democrats have a chance to keep control of Congress. At the
beginning of the year, Republicans were favored to take back the Senate and the
House. Now Democrats are favored to
retain the Senate and have moved closer in the House races. There are five
shaky Democratic Senate seats; at the moment three lean Democrat (Bennett,
Hassan, and Kelly) and there are two where the Dems are ahead (Catherine Cortez
Masto and Raphael Warnock). There are Five shaky Republican Senate seats; at
the moment two lean Democrat (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and there are three
where Dems are ahead (Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio). There are many
reasons why the Democratic candidates are doing well.
3.
Democrats have an agenda and the Republicans don't. Republicans
might disagree; they probably would say that their agenda is: "Donald
J.Trump has been poorly treated. The 2020 election was stolen from him and now
the FBI is harassing him." This appeals to Trump devotees but it doesn't
work with "rational" Republicans and Independents, who ask:
"What about the economy? What about abortion? What about climate change?
What about the other issues?"
4.
Many Republican candidates are terrible. One of the reasons that
Democrats are doing better than expected in the Senate races is that the
Republican Senate candidates are unprepared for prime time, Democrats are doing
well in Pennsylvania because their candidate, John Fetterman, is much better
than the GOP candidate, Oz. Likewise in Wisconsin, where Mandela Barnes
is stronger than Ron Johnson; and Georgia where Warnock is infinitely
preferable to Herschel Walker.
5.
Abortion is a big issue. On June 24, the Supreme Court
overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling recognizing women's
constitutional right to abortion. It came as a shock to many female voters, who
had not taken seriously Democrats' concern that a conservative Supreme Court
would overturn Roe
v. Wade. Now this ruling has become a rallying point for Democrats
who go to the midterm polls not only determined to stop Donald Trump but also
set on protecting reproductive freedom of choice.
There are many
polls suggesting that voter enthusiasm is
up, particularly among women and younger voters—segments that traditionally
benefit Democrats.
6.
The economy may not be the deciding issue. Historically,
the state of the economy has been the determining issue in the midterm
elections. This year, that may not be the case as abortion should be the
biggest issue. Not to say that the economy will not be a big concern, but
rather that the economy has improved enough that abortion—and other issues—will
be more important.
Why?
First, the U.S. economy has stabilized and is clearly the world's strongest
economy. (For example, compare our economy to that of Great Britain or
France or Germany or China or Russia.) Second, we're not headed into a
recession—sorry Republicans, we know this disappoints you.
Of course,
inflation is a concern, but many key consumer costs—such as food and fuel—are
headed down.
And, the job
market is robust. And—drum roll—enthusiasm for unions is rapidly growing. A
recent Gallup poll showed that
"71% of Americans now approve of labor unions"—duh. After the
pandemic, millions of American workers woke up to the reality that they would
have better pay and job protection if they belonged to a union.
By the way,
Republicans don't have an economic message other than: "Vote for Trump;
he'll handle the economy the way he handles his businesses."
7.
The environment is an issue. This is good news and bad news.
The good news is that the environment should be an issue; the bad news is that
this is happening because, in many parts of the United States, we're seeing
clear evidence of the impact of global climate change. In California, we're
suffering from a terrible drought and, of course, mammoth forest fires. (BTW,
this week we had a heat wave that set records.)
In the
California central valley, climate change will be the primary issue in several
key races. For example, in CA-22 where incumbent Republican David Valadao is
running against Democrat Rudy Salas. In CA-22, wells are going dry. The
Republican response is "Biden took your water." The Democratic
response is, "We have to stop giving a disproportionate amount of water to
Big Agriculture—for example, almond farmers—and give better access to the
people."
8.
Democracy is on the ballot. A recent Quinnipiac poll found
67% of all of those surveyed said democracy is in danger. We should be
concerned that a large number of Americans support Donald Trump and many of
them do not appear to support democracy. In states controlled by Republican
legislatures, they've made it harder to vote. They've continued to support
egregious gerrymandering.
Recently, Joe
Biden called Trump's political philosophy "semi-fascism." He's right.
Trump has fomented an authoritarian cult. He's a threat to democracy.
9.
Democrats are (relatively) united; Republicans are not. A recent NPR poll found
that 61% of voters do not want Trump to run in 2024. Nonetheless, 67% of
Republicans do want him to run. While this is dismaying, it indicates that in a
contested race the Trump candidate will probably lose because the Democratic
candidate will have the support of an overwhelming number of Democratic and
Independent voters and a few Republicans. That's what's happened in the Alaska
congressional race. (By the way, the Trump supporters are primarily "White
Evangelical Christians"—evidently motivated by Trump's moral conduct.)
10.
Elections are determined by turnout. On November 8,
Democrats will prevail if they get out the vote. Will they? I think so.
Last year, in
California, Gov. Gavin Newsom faced a recall. A lot of Democrats were worried.
Then they got busy and turned out the vote. When the recall "dust"
settled: 61.9% voted to retain Newsom, and 38.1% voted to recall.
It's time to get
busy, Democrats. It's time to end the Trump madness. It's time to save
democracy.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley Quaker,
activist, and writer. In another life he was a Silicon Valley executive —
co-founder of Cisco Systems.