COVID is still killing us
University of Southern California
Over one million Americans have died of COVID and another 500 die every day
An
updated analysis of American COVID-19 deaths throughout 2021 highlights a
continued drop in overall life expectancy as well as persistent disparities by
race and ethnicity.
Lead author
Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Southern
California Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, and coauthor Noreen Goldman at
the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs first examined the
pandemic's effect on U.S. life expectancy in October 2020. Their initial study,
published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in January 2021,
showed that 2020 presented the largest single-year decline in life expectancy
in at least 40 years and the lowest life expectancy estimated since 2003.
The updated
analysis, published in PLOS
ONE, indicates that U.S. life expectancy at birth decreased by 2.2 years
from 78.8 in 2019 to 76.6 in 2021. The estimated decrease in life expectancy
for 2021 is 0.6 years larger than the decrease observed in 2020, Andrasfay
said.
"Despite
the availability of effective vaccines, life expectancy continued to decline in
2021. Part of this is due to the large number of COVID-19 deaths that occurred
in the beginning of 2021, before many individuals were eligible for vaccination,"
she said. "But even once all adults became eligible for vaccination, many
chose not to be vaccinated and even vaccinated individuals were not completely
protected against the highly transmissible Delta and Omicron variants."
The study highlighted that significant racial disparities in loss of lifespan have endured throughout the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2021, non-Latino whites lost 2 years on average, while non-Latino Blacks lost 3.5 years and Latinos lost 3.7 years of life expectancy. As noted in Andrasfay and Goldman's previous analyses, Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of coronavirus infections and deaths, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that heighten risk of exposure to and death from COVID-19. Goldman noted that "although Whites experienced a larger drop in life expectancy between 2020 and 2021 than the Black and Latino populations, resulting in a very modest reduction in racial and ethnic differences, the disparities in life expectancy loss since the start of the pandemic remain regrettably and unacceptably large."
Although
COVID-19 is the primary cause of continued life expectancy reductions in 2021,
"increases in other causes of death relative to pre-pandemic levels
contribute to these life expectancy declines," the authors wrote. The
pandemic appears to have played a role in the increase of drug overdose deaths
in 2020 and 2021, and increased mortality from conditions such as heart disease
or diabetes may be attributable to complications of Covid-19 infections and/or
health care shortages and delays.
This week the
CDC also released provisional estimates of life expectancy in 2021. "We
did not have access to the same level of detailed data as the CDC, so we
arrived at slightly different life expectancy estimates," Andrasfay said.
"Despite these differences, our results are largely in agreement in that
we find continued life expectancy reductions in 2021 and persistent racial and
ethnic disparities."
"COVID-19
mortality has been lower in the first half of 2022 compared to 2021, so if
there is a successful booster campaign in the fall and the dominant strains
have lower fatality rates than previous variants, it is possible that 2022 life
expectancy may improve relative to 2021, though it is unlikely to return to
levels seen prior to 2020," she added. "However, what happens with
2022 life expectancy will ultimately depend on this coming fall and
winter."
Story Source:
Materials provided by University of Southern California.
Original written by Beth Newcomb. Note: Content may be edited for style and
length.
