Maybe Trump COULD get away with shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.
ROBERT REICH in Robertreich.Substack.Com
These are the most serious charges against
Trump yet, but the reality is that these charges will only boost Trump in the
Republican primary.
In March, several weeks before the first
indictment, Trump had just 43% of the vote in Republican polling, according to
a RealClearPolitics average. But a day after he was charged in a hush money
scheme to an adult film actress, his numbers had jumped to 50%.
Two months later, he was indicted for
mishandling classified documents. His polling average jumped again. By July 18,
when a federal judge clarified that Trump had “raped” writer E.
Jean Carroll, Trump’s approval had risen to 54% in the
RealClearPolitics national polling average—a 10-point climb during the spring
and summer.
So today’s long-expected Justice Department
indictment of Trump for trying to overturn the last presidential election is
likely to boost his favorable rating into the polling stratosphere as far as
the Republican nomination is concerned.
Each indictment and civil verdict against
Trump provides even more ammunition for Trump in his campaign against the
so-called “Deep State.” Each further entrenches his campaign in a singular
narrative focusing on him—placing Trump at the center of a national conspiracy.
This dynamic makes it all but impossible
for any of his rivals to criticize him. DeSantis and most of Trump’s opponents
have embraced the Trump-stoked view that nearly any effort by a Democratic
administration to pursue justice against Trump is de facto illegitimate. Siding
with Jack Smith against Trump has become a litmus test that is little different
from choosing the wrong side on abortion.
The Trump campaign’s current strategy is to
attack rivals (mostly Ron
DeSantis) for any hint they might be siding with prosecutors over
Trump.
The dynamic also ties the Republican Party
ever tighter to Trump’s self-referential conspiratorial narrative.
But each indictment and civil verdict has
given the rest of America further confirmation of how dangerous and loathsome
Donald Trump really is, and how far the Republican Party has gone in rejecting
the rule of law.
There will not be enough time in the
general election to alter this dynamic. It will likely contribute to Democratic
sweeps of the presidency, Congress, and most state contests.
It could also put the current GOP into a
death spiral—resulting in a purge of its Trump-dependent lawmakers and
candidates. This may be the only way the Republican Party can begin to rebuild
itself.
Tuesday’s indictment begins a reassertion
of the rule of law in America. We are deeply indebted to Special Counsel Jack
Smith and his staff for their care, integrity, and commitment to the Constitution.
© 2021 robertreich.substack.com
ROBERT REICH is the Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy
at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior fellow at the Blum
Center for Developing Economies. He served as secretary of labor in the Clinton
administration, for which Time magazine named him one of the 10 most effective
cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. His book include:
"Aftershock" (2011), "The Work of Nations" (1992),
"Beyond Outrage" (2012) and, "Saving Capitalism" (2016). He
is also a founding editor of The American Prospect magazine, former chairman of
Common Cause, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and
co-creator of the award-winning documentary, "Inequality For All."
Reich's newest book is "The Common Good" (2019). He's co-creator of
the Netflix original documentary "Saving Capitalism," which is
streaming now.
