NOAA Releases Updated 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA
Due to current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm sea surface temperatures, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center—a division of the National Weather Service—has increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to an “above normal” level of activity from a “near normal” level with their most recent update.
Although cyclone formation can occur any time of the
year, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1 through
November 30, when most tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season began surprisingly
early on January 16, when the National Hurricane Center issued a special
tropical weather outlook for a low-pressure system north of Bermuda. This
system became an unnamed subtropical storm southeast of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, which made landfall on January 17 near Louisbourg, Nova Scotia
before dissipating over eastern Quebec the next day.
Then, on the first official day of hurricane season, a
tropical depression formed off the west coast of Florida, over the Gulf of
Mexico on June 1. This strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene the following
day, bringing several inches of rainfall across South Florida before
dissipating north of Cuba.
Later that month, Tropical Storm Bret formed on June 19, east of the southern Windward Islands. It intensified as it headed toward the Lesser Antilles. It passed north of Barbados and directly over St. Vincent before the then weakening storm passed north of Aruba.
Around the same time, a tropical depression was forming
east of the Lesser Antilles, which became a tropical depression on June 22. It
then strengthened into Tropical Storm Cindy on June 23. However, the storm
began weakening and dissipated on June 26, north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.
Another disturbance near Bermuda formed on July 10 and
was classified as Subtropical Storm Don on July 14. This system became one of
the longest-lasting on record to traverse
the Atlantic Ocean during the month of July. It came in fifth, just behind
Hurricane Emily in 2005. Don even briefly reached hurricane status—the first of
the season—on July 22 before weakening the following day and transitioning to a
post-tropical cyclone on July 24.
NOAA satellites will continue monitoring the Nation's weather, including watching for tropical cyclone activity, 24/7. They provide vital information for forecasting hurricanes and monitoring the location, movement and intensity of storms.
The GOES-16 (GOES East) and GOES-18 (GOES
West) geostationary satellites continuously view the entire Atlantic and
eastern/central Pacific hurricane basins to provide real-time tracking and
monitoring of tropical cyclones as well as the environmental conditions that
cause them to form.
By imaging a storm as often as every 30 seconds, these
satellites help forecasters more easily discern the movement of cloud features
and provide greater confidence in estimating the center of the storm. GOES-16
and GOES-18 also provide a detailed look at the storm properties of a
hurricane, including cloud top cooling, central pressure, and convective
structures as well as specific features of a hurricane’s eye, wind estimates,
and lightning activity. This information is critical to estimating a storm’s
intensity.
The Joint Polar Satellite System’s (JPSS) polar-orbiting
satellites, Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, capture data over each spot on Earth twice a
day. They measure the state of the atmosphere by taking precise measurements of
sea surface temperatures and atmospheric temperature and moisture, which are
critical to securing storm forecasts several days in advance. JPSS instruments
provide data that are particularly useful in helping forecasters predict a
hurricane’s path 3 to 7 days out.
Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the
latest information on tropical storm and hurricane activity and follow the
storms’ paths using NOAA’s Live Hurricane Tracker.