It’s already begun
Yeah, let's do it again
Since the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe
v. Wade left the issue of abortion to the states, one out of three
women of childbearing age now lives in a state that makes it nearly impossible
to get an abortion.
And while red states are making it harder than ever to
get abortions, they’re making it easier than ever to buy guns.
Red states are also banning diversity, equity, and
inclusion (DEI) initiatives in education. Florida’s Board of Education recently
prohibited public colleges from using state and federal funds for DEI. Texas
Governor Greg Abbott has signed a law to require that all state-funded colleges
and universities close their DEI offices.
Red states are suppressing votes. In Florida and Texas,
teams of “election police” have
been created to crack down on the rare crime of voter fraud, another fallout
from Trump’s big lie.
They’re banning the teaching of America’s history of racism. They’re requiring transgender students to use bathrooms and join sports teams that reflect their sex at birth.
They’re making it harder to protest. More difficult to
qualify for unemployment benefits and other forms of public assistance. Harder
than ever to form labor unions.
They’re even passing “bounty” laws —
enforced not by governments but by rewards to private citizens for filing
lawsuits — on issues ranging from classroom speech to abortion to vaccination.
Blue states are moving in the opposite direction. Several, including Colorado and Vermont, are codifying a right to abortion. Some are helping cover abortion expenses for out-of-staters.
When Idaho proposed a ban on abortion that empowers
relatives to sue anyone who helps terminate a pregnancy after six weeks,
nearby Oregon approved
$15 million to help cover the abortion expenses of patients from other states.
Maryland and Washington have
expanded access and legal protections to out-of-state abortion patients.
California has expanded access to abortion and protected abortion providers
from out-of-state legal action.
After the governor of Texas ordered state agencies to
investigate parents for child abuse if they provide certain medical treatments
to their transgender children, California enacted a law making the
state a refuge for transgender youths and their families.
Blue states are also coordinating more of their policies.
During the pandemic, blue states joined together on policies that red states
rejected — such as purchasing agreements for personal protective equipment,
strategies for reopening businesses as Covid subsided, even on travel from
other states with high levels of Covid.
But as blue and red states separate, what will happen to
the poor in red states, disproportionately people of color?
“States’ rights” has always been a cover for racial
discrimination and segregation. The poor — both white and people of color — are
already especially burdened by anti-abortion legislation because they can’t
afford travel to a blue state to get an abortion.
They’re also hurt by the failure of red states to expand
Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act, by red state de
facto segregation in public schools, and by red state measures to
suppress votes.
One answer is for Democratic administrations and
congresses in Washington to prioritize the needs of the red state poor and make
extra efforts to protect the civil and political rights of people of color in
red states. Yet the failure of the Senate to muster enough votes to pass the
Freedom to Vote Act, let alone revive the Voting Rights Act, suggests how
difficult this will be.
Blue states could spend additional resources on the needs
of red state residents, such as Oregon is now doing for people from outside
Oregon who seek abortions. And prohibit state funds from being spent in any
state that bans abortions or discriminates on the basis of race, ethnicity, or
gender.
California already bars anyone on a state payroll
(including yours truly, who teaches at Berkeley) from getting reimbursed for
travel to states that discriminate against LGBTQ+ people.
Where will all this end?
If Trump is elected this November, the separation will
become even sharper. When he was president last time, Trump acted as if he was
president only of the people who vote for him — overwhelmingly from red states
— and not as the president of all of America.
Recall that during his presidency, he supported
legislation that hurt voters in blue states — such as his tax law that stopped
deductions of state and local taxes from federal income taxes.
More than 4 in 10 voters believe that a second civil war
is likely within the next five years, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll
conducted April 21-23.
Red zip codes are getting redder and blue zip codes,
bluer. Of the nation’s total 3,143 counties, the number of super landslide
counties — where a presidential candidate won at least 80 percent of the vote —
jumped from 6 percent in 2004 to 22 percent
in 2020.
Surveys show Americans find it increasingly important to
live around people who share their political
values. Animosity toward those in the opposing party is higher than
at any time in living memory. Forty-two percent of
registered voters believe Americans in the other party are “downright evil.”
Almost 40 percent would
be upset at the prospect of their child marrying someone from the opposite
party. Even before the 2020 election, when asked if violence would be justified
if the other party won the election, 18.3 percent of
Democrats and 13.8 percent of
Republicans responded in the affirmative.
We are becoming two Americas — one largely urban,
racially and ethnically diverse, and young. The other, largely rural or
exurban, white and older.
But rather than civil war, I see a gradual, continuous
separation — analogous to unhappily married people who don’t want to go through
the trauma of a formal divorce.
America will still be America. But it is fast becoming
two versions of America. The open question is the same as faced by couples who
separate: Will the two remain civil toward each other?
Robert Reich is a professor at Berkeley and was secretary of labor under Bill Clinton. You can find his writing at https://robertreich.substack.com/.