Cut back on the Italian subs
UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH
A team from the University’s Global Academy of
Agriculture and Food Systems, together with the University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, has developed a simulation tool to estimate the health impacts of
reducing consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat.
While many studies have identified links between high
levels of processed meat consumption and chronic disease, few have evaluated
the impact on multiple health outcomes. Some previous research also suggests
unprocessed red meat may contribute to chronic disease risk but evidence is
still limited.
Simulated population
The researchers used data from a Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) national health survey to create a simulated,
representative sample of the US adult population – a so-called microsimulation.
The team's microsimulation is the first to estimate the
effects of reducing processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption – from
between 5 and 100 per cent – on multiple health outcomes in the US.
They estimated how changes in meat consumption affect
adults’ risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer and death.
The effects were evaluated in the overall population and separately based on
age, sex, household income and ethnicity.
Health benefits
As well as preventing more than 350,000 cases of
diabetes, cutting processed meat intake by 30 per cent would lead to 92,500
fewer cardiovascular disease cases and 53,300 fewer colorectal cancer cases
over a decade, researchers say.
In this scenario, white males and those with an annual
household income between $25,000 and $55,000 were found to experience the
greatest health benefits.
Cutting consumption
Researchers also analyzed the impacts of reducing
unprocessed red meat intake alone and cutting consumption of both processed
meat and unprocessed red meat.
Reducing consumption of both by 30 per cent resulted in
1,073,400 fewer diabetes cases, 382,400 fewer cardiovascular disease cases and
84,400 fewer colorectal cancer cases.
Cutting unprocessed red meat intake alone by 30 per cent
– which would mean eating around one less quarter-pound beef burger a week –
resulted in more than 732,000 fewer diabetes cases. It also led to 291,500
fewer cardiovascular disease cases and 32,200 fewer colorectal cancer cases.
Remaining uncertainty
The finding that more disease cases were prevented by
reducing unprocessed red meat compared to processed meat is partly due to the
average daily intake of unprocessed red meat being higher than processed meat,
at 47g a day versus 29g a day, respectively.
As less is known about the effect of eating unprocessed
red meat on chronic disease risk, the team says these estimates should be
interpreted with caution and that more research is needed.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health
journal, was funded by The Wellcome Trust.
