Numbers prove the naysayers wrong
MULTIPLE AUTHORS in Carbon Brief
Nevertheless, record global demand for
energy saw coal and oil use also reaching new highs last year, the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 finds.
This pushed global carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions to another record in 2023, the world’s first full year with no impact
from the coronavirus pandemic, the data shows.
Key figures from the report include:
Global energy demand reached a record high
of 620 exajoules (EJ) in 2023, with annual growth of 2.0%, slightly above the
1.5% per year average for the last decade.
Wind and solar together were the largest
source of new energy in 2023, adding 4.9EJ or 40% of the increase overall. The
rest of the net increase came from oil (+4.8EJ, 39% of the increase), coal
(+2.5EJ, 20%), nuclear (+0.4EJ, 4%) and other non-hydro renewables (+0.5EJ,
4%), while gas stayed flat and hydro declined (-0.9EJ, -8%).
Global energy use from coal grew 1.6%
year-on-year to a record high of 164EJ, passing the previous record of 162EJ,
set a decade earlier in 2014.
Global energy use from oil grew 2.5% to a
record high of 196EJ, comfortably above the previous high of 193EJ set in 2019,
before the coronavirus pandemic.
Global energy use from gas was unchanged at
144EJ. It has now flatlined for two years since the global energy crisis,
due to Russia cutting off
gas supplies to Europe.
Global electricity generation from coal
grew by 189 terawatt hours (TWh, 1.8%) year-on-year to a record high of
10,513TWh. This was despite wind and solar adding a record 537TWh of new
generation, up a combined 15.7% year-on-year to 3,967TWh.
The new highs for coal and oil use drove
global emissions to another record, with
releases from fossil fuel burning, industrial processes, methane and flaring
topping 40bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) for the first time.
With global temperatures inching closer to
the 1.5C limit, time is
running out to peak and then decline emissions in order to avoid dangerous
levels of warming. The new figures show the world is still going in the wrong
direction, with new records for coal, oil and CO2 emissions.
Yet there are hints that, beyond
today’s data for 2023, the world could be turning a corner, as emissions from China – and
the global electricity system – may
already have peaked.
This is the second edition of the
statistical review published by the Energy Institute. Carbon Brief covered
earlier editions, published by oil major BP, in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Wind and solar make history
One of the most striking details in this
year’s report is that wind and solar, when combined, added more new energy to
the global mix in 2023 than any other source, as shown in the figure below.
The combined 4.9EJ of new energy from wind
and solar in 2023 accounted for 40% of the overall increase in global demand,
ahead of oil (39%) and coal (20%).
This is the first time in history that
these newer forms of renewable energy have outpaced each of the fossil fuels,
which remain the world’s dominant sources of energy.
Annual change in global energy demand in
2023, by source, exajoules. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of Energy Institute
Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. Chart by Carbon Brief.
Still, the significant increases in demand
for energy from oil (+4.8EJ) and coal (+2.5EJ), shown in the figure above,
resulted in yet another increase in global CO2 emissions.
The drop in hydro output – also shown
above – resulted from major droughts around
the world in 2023, particularly in China. This shortfall
was largely met by
increased coal power.
Along with the continued rapid expansion of
wind and solar, a recovery in hydro generation from last year’s lows is
expected to contribute to a peak in emissions from
the global power sector.
While global demand for oil and gas is
not expected to peak until later this decade,
reductions in coal use could still drive a near-term peak in
global CO2 emissions.
Record highs for coal and oil
The record 4.9EJ of new energy added by
wind and solar in 2023 marks a continuation of their rapid growth over the past
decade, shown in the figure below.
In combination, wind and solar now
contribute 37EJ to the global energy system, up 15% year-on-year. Their
combined output has grown at an average 17% per year for the past decade,
taking them from a total of just 8EJ in 2013 to the 2023 figure of 37EJ.
As the figure below shows, wind and solar
overtook nuclear power in 2021 and, in combination, they are likely to overtake
hydropower this year.
Still, it is clear from the figure that the
global energy system remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
At a new record of 196EJ in 2023, oil is
the world’s largest source of energy, accounting for nearly a third of the
total (32%) energy mix and having grown nearly every year for the past
half-century.
Coal is in second place, at 164EJ in 2023
or 26% of the mix. While this, too, marks a new record, global coal demand has
been flat for the past decade. Indeed, at one point it seemed that the previous
2014 record of 162EJ might have marked a lasting peak for
the fuel.
Notably, the figure above shows that global gas demand has now flatlined for the past two years. While the future trajectory for the fuel remains uncertain, this recent trend illustrates why the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in late 2022 that the “golden age of gas” had been brought to an end by the global energy crisis, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier that year.
In total, fossil fuels met some 81.5% of
global primary energy demand in 2023, as shown in the figure below. While this
is a record low, it is only around 4 percentage points lower than a decade
earlier – and 5 percentage points below the level seen in 1990.
Energy Institute chief executive Nick Wayth told a pre-release press briefing that the data could be interpreted to suggest that the global energy transition “has not even started”:
“At the global level, today’s new data
provides little encouragement in terms of global climate change mitigation.
Clean energy is still not even meeting the entirety of demand growth and
therefore at a global level not displacing fossil fuels. Arguably, the
transition has not even started.”
However, this interpretation hides a
“lopsided” picture for different parts of the world, Wayth said. “Fossil demand
is likely to be peaking” in the major economies of Europe and the US, he
explained, even as countries in the Global South are “still carbonising”.
Electricity system in flux
To date, the energy transition has had the
most dramatic impact on the global electricity system, as the figure below
shows. Wind and solar generation has grown from a combined 774TWh in 2013 to
nearly 4,000TWh in 2023 – more than quintupling in a decade.
Together, wind and solar accounted for 13%
of global electricity supplies in 2023, up from 3% a decade earlier. Still,
rapidly-rising demand for electricity, which is expected to accelerate as heat,
transport and industry are increasingly electrified, means that coal power
reached a record high of 10,513TWh in 2023.This cements its position as the
single-largest contributor to the mix.
Low-carbon sources of clean energy, including nuclear and renewables, now make up a record high 39% of global electricity supplies, ahead of coal at 35%. With gas making up a further 23% of the mix, the majority of the world’s electricity is still being generated with fossil fuels.
The expansion of wind and solar is expected to continue and
even accelerate – particularly if the global goal of tripling renewable capacity
by 2030 is to be met.
Combined with a recovery in global
hydropower output, following a series of major droughts, this could force
fossil fuel power into the beginning of structural decline in
2024.
Record CO2 emissions
Taking all of the pieces together, the
record for coal and oil use along with flat demand for gas means global CO2
emissions reached a new high in 2023, the Energy Institute’s data shows. This
is despite the record amounts of new energy added by wind and solar power.
In total, global emissions from fossil
fuels, industrial processes, methane and flaring breached 40GtCO2e for the
first time in 2023, as shown in the figure below.
China’s emissions grew by 708m tonnes of
CO2e (MtCO2e, 6%) year-on-year, accounting for 85% of the net increase globally
(829MtCO2e). India’s emissions also grew strongly, up 257MtCO2e (9%), while
emissions in the US and EU fell by 140MtCO2 (2.7%) and 188MtCO2e (6.6%)
respectively.
The Energy Institute estimate confirms earlier analysis from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) and the IEA, both of which found fossil fuel CO2 emissions had reached a new record high in 2023.
However, GCP estimates including CO2
emissions from land use change put 2023 just below the record set in 2019, with
the total having been roughly flat for a decade.
Looking ahead, the key question for global
emissions is whether China has already peaked and,
if so, how quickly its emissions begin to fall. If it
has, then it would add to continued emissions reductions in developed countries
and likely outweigh increases elsewhere.