Red state governors sacrificed 200,000 Americans to COVID-19
by Mark Sumner, Daily Kos Staff
But during the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans witnessed an
actual mass human sacrifice that came with a different kind of ceremony and
distinctive ritual chants. Those ceremonies took place in red state governors’
offices and the chants intoned “freedom” as these elected officials fought
against closing schools, blocked mask mandates, and belittled the effectiveness
of vaccines.
According to a paper published this week in the Journal
of the American Medical Association, an enormous number of Americans died
unnecessarily during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those deaths can’t be laid at the
feet of Donald Trump for his diminishment
of the threat and mishandling of
the consequences. This tragic phenomenon was more local.
As many as one-quarter of a million Americans died simply
because their state governments refused to impose good public health standards.
They died as appeasements to the twin gods of ignorance and politics.
The results of the study are clear—and brutal.
If all states had imposed restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year analysis period; conversely, the estimates suggest counterfactual increases of 13% to 17% if all states had restrictions similar to those in the 10 least-restrictive states.
In other words, if every state had followed the steps used
in the 10 states that the study determined did the most to prevent COVID-19
through mask mandates, vaccination requirements, and limits on public
gatherings, somewhere between 118,000 and 248,000 Americans would not have
died.
“The death toll was probably considerably higher than it
would otherwise have been in states that resisted imposing these restrictions,
banned their use, or implemented them for only relatively short periods of
time,” wrote Dr. Christopher Ruhm from the Frank Batten School of Leadership
and Public Policy at the University of Virginia.
Conversely, if all states had followed the laissez-germ
attitude of the least restrictive states, the number of unnecessary deaths
would have jumped to between 271,000 and 447,000.
Not all restrictions were equally effective. Even though it
may seem like an obvious step, the study indicates that widespread school
closures and restricting visitors to nursing homes had a minimal impact, and
may have actually done more harm than good when it comes to factors including
educational outcomes and social isolation. But other restrictions (like mask
mandates) had a direct and significant impact, especially when comparing states
at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to pandemic-era restrictions.
“At the extreme,” wrote Ruhn, “the excess death rate in
Massachusetts was less than one-fifth that of Mississippi (115 vs 590 per
100,000)” people.
Ruhn isn’t holding Mississippi and similar states to an
impossible standard. He’s comparing their approach to the restrictions that
were imposed in Massachusetts by Republican Gov. Charlie Baker.
But in Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves made opposition to
public health measures a theme of his administration, quickly ending
mandates for masks and restrictions on schools and businesses even
though the
high level of deaths was immediately visible. He has continued that
approach since the study ended in 2022. That has included a
bill blocking schools and public agencies from checking vaccination
status, and reiterating his opposition to mask
mandates,
As the study shows, states largely followed the same
patterns in the early days of the pandemic: All of them had declared a “state
of emergency” by March 15, 2020, and the overall level of restrictions was high
by early April.
However, a few months into the pandemic, things began to
change as right-aligned groups applied pressure on lawmakers.
Considerable policy variation emerged in the second half of
2020, with states reducing or eliminating activity limitations and, somewhat
later, mask requirements. Mobility reductions also declined rapidly during this
period, as did mask use after the start of 2021. Vaccinations first became
available in December 2020 and quickly became widespread, but with considerable
geographic heterogeneity.
To make that more clear, red states quickly ended limits on
gatherings and mask mandates. When vaccines became available, those same states
failed to impose mandates on schools or government agencies, resulting in low
vaccination rates.
As those policy differences grew, so did the difference in
excess deaths. These deaths didn’t happen in the early days of the pandemic
when COVID-19 was poorly understood, treatment was uncertain, and there were
shortages of necessary medical equipment. They came months into the pandemic,
at a time when some of the states that had been the first to face the disease
had effectively brought it under control.
These deaths came while Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis was issuing an order that blocked mask
mandates, threatening
cruise lines that tried to check vaccination status, and defunding
schools that tried to follow guidelines from the Centers for Disease
Control.
The deaths mounted as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott was blocking
vaccine mandates even at private businesses, making mask
mandates illegal, and stripping
power from local governments and health agencies. They came as South
Dakota Gov. Kristi
Noem was bragging about how she had kept her state “open” and
demeaning the use of masks.
And those governors are still at it. DeSantis
made his nonresponse to COVID-19 the center of his aborted
presidential campaign. Abbott
refuses to cede “emergency powers” that allow him to block vaccine
mandates and other health guidelines. Noem
was still crowing about her refusal to protect South Dakota citizens
at the Republican National Convention this month.
Again, none of what they had to do was impossible—other
states did it. They can’t even defend their actions through concerns about
cost. The study also shows that the cost of lives lost was far in excess of any
other expense.
Using value of statistical life estimates ranging from $4.7
million to $11.6 million, the estimated lives saved from strong (vs weak)
restrictions over the 2-year period were worth $1.3 trillion to $5.2
trillion—6% to 22% of 2021 gross domestic product—providing a possible
benchmark against which to evaluate this loss.
Those are jaw-dropping numbers. But then, the value of human
lives is extremely high. You might think state governors would know that.
The sheer number of people who died because a group of red
state governors chose to—not had to, but chose to—implement
policies they could brag about at the next big Republican event is simply
devastating. Those amoral governors may never answer for these lost lives in
any meaningful way, but voters can make sure those who are still in office get
their just desserts at the ballot box.
