Party line split on issues like election security. Democrats most concerned about housing, Republicans about roads and bridges
CQ Roll Call.
Amid a polarizing presidential campaign, a University of
Rhode Island opinion poll released today finds agreement across party
affiliations on issues of election integrity, trust in election officials and
concerns about election-related violence – while seeing a divide in worries
over voter fraud.
The poll – the second annual edition from URI’s Rhode Island Survey Initiative – surveyed a representative sample of 500 Rhode Island residents ages 18 and older between Aug. 15 and Sept. 8, 2024.
The survey was
administered by the highly respected polling firm YouGov via the internet;
participants were chosen from YouGov’s opt-in survey panel of Rhode Island
residents who agree to participate in YouGov surveys. The margin of error for
the poll is +/- 6.02%.
“While there are national polls that also focus on American
confidence in election administration, our survey results offer a detailed
snapshot of Rhode Islanders’ levels of trust in election authorities and
systems and trust in government as well as attitudes about democracy, media,
policy, and political participation in the state,” said Emily Lynch, URI
professor of political science. “The survey results indicate that Rhode
Islanders trust state election systems, but at the same time they have concerns
about the upcoming election in a number of areas, such as AI-generated fake
political information and political violence.”
Majorities from each party – Democrats (92%), Independents
(69%), and Republicans (55%) – say they feel votes are somewhat often or very
often counted accurately. And solid majorities of all three parties – Democrats
(85%), Republicans (79%), and Independents (73%) – think political violence is
a somewhat or very big problem in the U.S. today. A smaller majority of all
three are concerned about civil unrest after election day in Rhode Island.
There was a divide on questions about fraud, however. A
majority of Republicans and Independents are somewhat or very concerned about
voter fraud – specifically noncitizen voting, citizens voting more than once,
vote tampering, and people claiming to be another person in order to vote.
Democrats lagged on all four questions – with the highest level of concern
(37%) found with regard to vote tampering.
The survey also asked respondents who they will vote for on
Nov. 5 in the presidential race and the state’s U.S. Senate race. Among those
who indicated that they were registered voters, 53% said they would vote for
Vice President Kamala Harris and 27% backed former President Donald Trump,
while 52% indicated they would vote for incumbent U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse,
and 24%, state Rep. Patricia Morgan.
The 2024 Rhode Island Survey Initiative looked at numerous topics affecting Rhode Island residents, from government spending and public schools to the blue economy and quality of life. It also included a special module on elections, trust, and democracy, which included questions about political violence and election interference. Complete results can be found on the survey website.
“The last few months have been a whirlwind in American
politics and we were able to include specific hot topics at the national and
state level in this year’s survey,” said Julie Keller, an associate professor
of sociology and director of the Social Science Institute for Research,
Education, and Policy.
Among the key findings are:
Trust in election officials: A majority of
respondents reported that they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in
election authorities – poll workers, local boards of canvassers, the state
Board of Elections and Department of State. Across party affiliations, Rhode
Islanders had a fair amount or great deal of trust in the state’s voting
machines, led by Democrats (93%), Republicans (71%), and Independents (69%).
Meanwhile, only 34% and 35% of Republicans had a fair amount or great deal of
trust in mail ballot drop boxes and mailing a ballot using the U.S. Postal
Service, respectively – compared with 84% of Democrats and 43% of Independents
on both mail ballot questions.
Worries about AI and R.I. elections: About 6 in
10 respondents worry artificial intelligence will somewhat or greatly hurt the
election process. No matter party affiliation, the majority of respondents –
79% of Republicans, 77% of Democrats, and 77% of Independents – are somewhat or
very concerned about the use of AI-generated political media, such as fake
images or video, and support state legislation to ban AI-generated political
media.
General Assembly election-related legislation: An
overall majority of respondents also back many of the other proposed bills
before the assembly related to elections. A solid majority of Republicans (80%)
– and smaller majorities of Democrats (56%) and Independents (69%) – support
legislation that would increase the responsibilities of the state Division of
Motor Vehicles in preventing noncitizens from registering to vote. Smaller
majorities support limits on who can mail another person’s mail ballot, while
only a majority of Democrats (56%) approve legislation related to rank-choice
voting in Rhode Island presidential primaries.
Opinions on media and politics: The top social
media sites for respondents to get political and election news are Facebook
(44%), YouTube (40%), Instagram (33%) and TikTok (23%). The top three national
media sources for Rhode Islanders are Fox News, CNN, and NBC Nightly News. When
it comes to local reporting on elections and campaigns, there is a split in
opinion on the fairness of journalists. A solid majority of Democrats (80%)
feel journalists provide fair coverage of elections somewhat often or very
often. Meanwhile, 68% of Republicans and 66% of Independents feel Rhode
Islanders are somewhat often or very often exposed to inaccurate information.
Public policy, education and quality of life: A
majority of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans support an increase in
spending on education, housing, and building and repairing roads. Asked to
select the most important priorities for the governor and General Assembly,
Democrats included housing (55%), health care (45%), and education (43%);
Independents, housing (58%), health care (40%), and roads and bridges (38%);
and Republicans, roads and bridges (54%), crime (53%), and housing (43%).
Polled for the second year on the most important problem
facing K-12 public schools in Rhode Island, the largest increase between 2023
and 2024 was in the percentage of respondents who chose insufficient funding
(up six percentage points, to 29%). The poll showed a rise in satisfaction with
the overall quality of life in Rhode Island over the last year, going from 45%
to 52% of respondents, and perceptions that the state’s economy is very or
somewhat strong, an increase of five percentage points, to 22%. Results were
fairly consistent with last year’s percentages because of the poll’s margin of
error.
An annual opinion poll
The Rhode Island Survey Initiative was launched last year by
a team of researchers from URI’s Harrington School for Communication and Media;
Social Science Institute for Research, Education, and Policy; and the
Department of Political Science, with plans to conduct at least one survey of
Rhode Island residents each year. Each poll will include different focus areas,
with some repeated questions to gauge the change in attitudes of Rhode Island
residents.
Keller said the survey initiative reflects the institute’s
goal of providing evidence-based insights to communities across the state.
“The initiative continues to strengthen experiential
learning opportunities for URI students while helping to inform decision-making
across the state,” she said. “This year, more organizations were consulted
about what topic areas should be addressed. And more faculty trained students
to work with the data as well.”
College of Arts and Sciences Fellows Delaney Sullivan ’25
and Abigail Noetzel ’26 helped choose election topics in the survey’s election
module based on research and interviews and helped construct the survey
questionnaire using an online survey tool. Their research included reviewing
information about local and federal elections and public opinion in academic
articles, books, and reports; listening to local political podcasts and shows;
and conducting interviews with state and local election officials and advocacy
groups.
“Interviewing election officials allowed me to understand
our election system more extensively,” said Sullivan, a double major in
political science and criminology and criminal justice. “I believe that public
opinion research in Rhode Island has been minimal, which is why I think this
survey is vital to election officials and residents in Rhode Island, as it
allows us to understand the state better.”
“Going forward, I am confident that I can excel in my
courses at URI given what I have learned through the fellowship, especially in
terms of research,” said Noetzel, a double major in psychology and criminology
and criminal justice. “I have developed countless transferable skills, and I am
super grateful for that.”
Note about methodology
Party identification was constructed using the seven-point
scale in which self-identified Democrats and Independent-leaning Democrats were
combined into the “Democrat” category; self-identified Republicans and
Independent-leaning Republicans were combined into the “Republican” category;
and Independents are in the “Independent” category.