“La Nina” weather pattern means changes this winter
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Transcript
(PDF): October 17 media briefing on NOAA's 2024 Winter Outlook. (335.19
KB)
A slowly-developing La Nina is favored to influence conditions for the upcoming winter across most of the country, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. This outlook is for December 2024 through February 2025 and contains information on likely conditions throughout the country for temperature, precipitation and drought.
This winter, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. Meanwhile, drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states.
“In September, we announced a $100 million investment into NOAA’s high-performance computer system to advance research on weather, climate and ocean predictions because understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provides vital information for many of our partners and the public,” said Michael Morgan, Ph.D., NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. “We continue to innovate in this space, developing new ways to share winter forecast information with the public.”
“This winter, an emerging La Nina is anticipated to
influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation
predictions,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch
of the Climate Prediction Center.
La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall
and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months,
leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier. As a result, NOAA
forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information
System (NIDIS), expect drought conditions to persist and worsen across
the central and southern Plains of the U.S.
“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024
with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the
land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,”
said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread
relief.”
Temperature
- Warmer-than-average
temperatures are favored from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern
Great Lakes, eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska. These
probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas.
- Below-average
temperatures are most likely in southern Alaska, with below-average
temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to the northern
High Plains.
- The
remaining areas have equal chances of below-, near-, or above-average
seasonal mean temperatures.
Precipitation
- Wetter-than-average
conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average
precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific
Northwest and across the northern tier of the U.S. These
probabilities are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana and
Kentucky.
- The
greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions are in states
bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico.
- Much
of California, the central Plains states and the I-95 corridor from Boston
to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of below-average, near-average or
above-average seasonal total precipitation.
Winter forecasting tools: Here’s what’s new at NOAA
- Over
the past year, NOAA implemented several upgrades and improvements to its
forecasting tools. In late 2023, the experimental Probabilistic
Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) became operational. The
product enhances communication with external partners, media and the
public by visually representing the likelihood of potential societal
impacts due to expected winter hazards over a 7-day period. This is
complemented by an existing operational version of the Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI), which is based on the official National
Weather Service forecast of the most likely conditions over the next three
days.
- NOAA
is simplifying its suite of cold weather products to improve messaging of
these hazards and provide better decision support services. As of October
2024, the Wind Chill Watch, Warning, and Advisory products were
consolidated into the Extreme Cold Watch and Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory products, respectively. The Hard Freeze Watch and Warning
products were consolidated into the existing Freeze Watch and Warning
products, respectively. More information can be found within this hazard
simplication project webstory.
- NOAA
will make the Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal publicly
available beginning in early November. This webpage will enable users to
view the Low-End, Expected and High-End amounts of snow and rain, as well
as probabilities of exceeding threshold amounts of precipitation. Data
will be available through an interactive map, tables and graphics to
assist local partners, including emergency management, with decision
support.
About NOAA's seasonal outlooks
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that
temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or
below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the
months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as
snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month
outlook monthly. The next update will be available November 21.
Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is
likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather's impacts on lives and
livelihoods. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive
tools to better understand and plan for climate-driven hazards. Empowering
people with actionable forecasts, seasonal predictions and winter weather safety tips is
key to NOAA’s effort to build a more Weather-
and Climate-Ready
Nation.
Climate, weather, and water affect all life on our ocean
planet. NOAA’s
mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from
the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America’s coastal and
marine resources.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Under Donald
Trump Project 2025 post-election plan, NOAA will be abolished.