How Trump could bring on a second civil war
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As well as his plan to target his political enemies for
prosecution — including Democrats, journalists, and other critics.
What happens when we, especially those of us in blue
states and cities, resist these authoritarian moves — as we must, as we have a
moral duty to?
What happens when we try to protect hardworking members
of our communities who have been our neighbors and friends for years, from
Trump’s federal troops?
Will our resistance give Trump an excuse to use force
against us?
This is not far-fetched. We need to answer these questions
for ourselves. We should prepare.
Trump has said he’ll use the Insurrection Act — which grants
a president the power to “take such measures as he considers necessary” to
suppress “any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or
conspiracy.”
He’s also said he’ll use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to
end sanctuary cities. Such cities now limit cooperation with
federal immigration authorities. Trump told Fox News’s Harris Faulkner that
“we can do things in terms of moving people out.”
The Enemies Act states that “Whenever there shall be a declared war between the United States and any foreign nation or government … and the President of the United States shall make public proclamation of the event, all natives, citizens, denizens, or subjects of the hostile nation or government, being males of the age of fourteen years and upwards, who shall be within the United States, and not actually naturalized, shall be liable to be apprehended, restrained, secured and removed, as alien enemies.”
The Enemies Act was part of a group of laws enacted at the
end of the 18th century — the Alien and Sedition Acts — which severely
curtailed civil liberties in the young United States, including by tightening
restrictions on foreign-born Americans and limiting speech critical of the
government.
Would Trump essentially declare war on states and
communities that oppose him?
When he was president last time, he acted as if he was
president only of the people who voted for him — overwhelmingly from red states
and cities — and not the president of all of America. He supported legislation
that hurt voters in blue states, such as his tax law that stopped deductions of
state and local taxes from federal income taxes.
Two Americas
One America is largely urban, college-educated, and racially
and ethnically diverse. It voted overwhelmingly for Kamala Harris.
The other America is largely rural or exurban, without
college degrees, and white. It voted overwhelmingly for Trump.
Even before Trump’s win, red zip codes were getting redder
and blue zip codes, bluer. Of the nation’s total 3,143 counties, the number of
super-landslide counties — where a presidential candidate won at least 80
percent of the vote — jumped from 6 percent in 2004 to 22 percent in 2020 and
appears to be even higher in 2024.
Just a dozen years ago, there were Democratic senators from
Iowa, North Dakota, Ohio, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana,
Louisiana, Missouri, Montana (two!), and West Virginia.
Today, there’s close to a zero chance of a Democrat being
elected to the Senate from any of these states.
Surveys show that Americans find it increasingly important
to live around people who share their political values.
Animosity toward those in the opposing party is higher than
at any time in living memory. Forty-two percent of registered voters believe
Americans in the other party are “downright evil.”
Almost 40 percent would be upset at the prospect of their
child marrying someone from the opposite party.
Even before the 2024 election, when asked if violence would
be justified if the other party won the election, 13.8 percent of Democrats and
18.3 percent of Republicans responded in the affirmative.
Red states are becoming even more reactionary.
Since the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v.
Wade left the issue of abortion to the states, 1 out of 3 women of
childbearing age now lives in a state that makes it nearly impossible to obtain
an abortion.
Even while red states are making it harder than ever to get
abortions, they’re making it easier than ever to buy guns.
Red states are also banning diversity, equity, and inclusion
(DEI) initiatives in education. Florida’s Board of Education prohibited public
colleges from using state and federal funds for DEI. Texas Governor Greg Abbott
has required all state-funded colleges and universities close their DEI
offices.
In Florida and Texas, teams of “election police” were
created to crack down on the rare crime of voter fraud, another fallout from
Trump’s big lie.
They’re banning the teaching of America’s history of racism.
They’re requiring transgender students to use bathrooms and join sports teams
that reflect their sex at birth.
They’re making it harder to protest.
They’re making it more difficult to qualify for unemployment
benefits and other forms of public assistance.
And harder than ever to form labor unions.
They’re even passing “bounty” laws — enforced not by
governments but by rewards to private citizens for filing lawsuits — on issues
ranging from classroom speech to abortion to vaccination.
Blue states are becoming more progressive.
Meanwhile, several blue states, including Colorado and
Vermont, are codifying a right to abortion.
Some are helping cover abortion expenses for out-of-staters.
When Idaho proposed a ban on abortion that empowers
relatives to sue anyone who helps terminate a pregnancy after six weeks, nearby
Oregon approved $15 million to help cover the abortion expenses of patients
from other states.
Maryland and Washington have expanded access and legal
protections to out-of-state abortion patients. California has expanded access
to abortion and protected abortion providers from out-of-state legal action.
After the governor of Texas ordered state agencies to
investigate parents for child abuse if they provide certain medical treatments
to their transgender children, California enacted a law making the state a
refuge for transgender youths and their families.
California already bars anyone on a state payroll (including
yours truly, who teaches at Berkeley) from getting reimbursed for travel to
states that discriminate against LGBTQ+ people.
Where will all this end?
Trump would like nothing better than a civil war over himself. He
loves to be at the center of attention, which is often at the center of the
chaos and outrage he has created.
Short of a civil war, the gap between red and blue America
might continue to widen — roughly analogous to unhappily married people who
don’t want to go through the trauma of a formal divorce and simply drift apart.
But a civil war is not inevitable. We must do what we can to
protect those who are most vulnerable to Trump’s fascism. But this doesn’t mean
allowing him to goad us into civil war.
What do you think?
Robert Reich, is the Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior fellow at the Blum Center for Developing Economies. He served as secretary of labor in the Clinton administration, for which Time magazine named him one of the 10 most effective cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. His book include: "Aftershock" (2011), "The Work of Nations" (1992), "Beyond Outrage" (2012) and, "Saving Capitalism" (2016). He is also a founding editor of The American Prospect magazine, former chairman of Common Cause, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the award-winning documentary, "Inequality For All." Reich's newest book is "The Common Good" (2019). He's co-creator of the Netflix original documentary "Saving Capitalism," which is streaming now.
