Why Bananas May Become a Rare and Expensive Treat

"Yes, we have no bananas"

By University of Exeter

Rising temperatures are making it harder for banana producers to keep up with global demand for one of the world’s most popular fruits.

A study from the University of Exeter, published March 6 in Nature Food, warns that by 2080, growing bananas for export may no longer be economically viable in many parts of Latin America and the Caribbean. Climate change is driving temperatures higher, making conditions less suitable for banana cultivation.

A Multi-Billion Dollar Industry at Risk

Bananas are a vital export, generating $11 billion (£8.9 billion) annually and supporting the economies of multiple countries. However, without urgent action, 60% of current banana-growing regions could struggle to sustain production within the next 50 years.

The study also highlights major socioeconomic barriers to adaptation, including limited access to infrastructure and labor shortages. Because most banana farms are located near population centers and ports, relocating to cooler areas is not a simple solution.

Banana plantations are large-scale farms dedicated to growing bananas, primarily in tropical regions. They require warm temperatures, high humidity, and well-drained soil. Commercial plantations use intensive farming techniques, including irrigation, fertilizers, and pest control. The industry is dominated by multinational corporations, with exports mainly going to North America and Europe.

A Dire Warning from Researchers

Professor Dan Bebber, who led the research, emphasized the urgency of the situation: “Our findings are a stark reminder that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods. Without substantial investment in adaptation, including irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties, the future of export banana production looks uncertain.

“Bananas are one of the world’s most important fruits, not only for consumers but for millions of workers in producing countries. It’s crucial we act now to safeguard the industry against the dual threats of climate change and emerging diseases.”

The researchers developed a new method using satellite imagery to map banana production in Latin America and the Caribbean at very high resolution and then estimated the climate under which bananas are preferentially grown. Their findings showed climate change will reduce the best areas for banana growth and yields in many important producer countries, as well as increasing worker exposure to extreme temperatures.

Which Countries Will Be Hit the Hardest?

Countries such as Colombia and Costa Rica will be the most negatively impacted as they are expected to become too hot for optimal cultivation. Ecuador and parts of Brazil are among the few areas to remain as important producers, as climate change is projected to be less severe there.

The researchers propose several adaptation strategies, including expanding irrigation infrastructure, breeding heat- and drought-tolerant banana varieties, and supporting banana producers to manage climate risks.

Collaboration for a Sustainable Future

Dr. Varun Varma of Rothamsted Research developed the remote sensing algorithms for the work and further assistance was provided by José Antonio Guzmán Alvarez of the Costa Rican organization CORBANA, who support the national banana industry.

Reference: “Socio-economic factors constrain climate change adaptation in a tropical export crop” 6 March 2025, Nature Food.
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01130-1

The study was funded by the Global Food Security Program and Horizon 2020.