COVID is the gift that keeps on giving
By University of Oxford
Their findings showed that life expectancy dropped in 2020
in all but four of these countries. The United States saw the steepest decline,
with a 2.1-year reduction for males. In 2021, life expectancy continued to fall
in most countries, with the biggest losses recorded among females in Bulgaria
and males in Latvia, both exceeding two years.
Pandemic’s Lasting Effects on Mortality Rates
Lead author Antonino Polizzi, a DPhil student at the
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, said, “This study explores the
direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality across the
world and highlights that life expectancy losses had still not returned to
pre-pandemic levels in several countries by 2022.”
The study found that, in addition to COVID-19 deaths,
increased mortality attributed to cardiovascular disease was a major
contributor to life expectancy losses during the first two years of the
pandemic, particularly in Russia and Eastern Europe. In 2020, cardiovascular
disease-related losses were greatest in Russia which experienced losses of 5.3
months. Bulgaria experienced cardiovascular disease-related losses of 5.5
months in 2021. The authors suggest that this could have been due to lapses in
prevention or treatment of cardiovascular disease, or undercounted COVID-19
deaths.
Reversing Decades of Progress in Heart Health
Co-author Professor Jennifer Dowd, Deputy Director of the
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Oxford Population Health’s
Demographic Science Unit, said, “The pandemic reversed years of progress in
reducing cardiovascular deaths in several countries, which constituted one of
the largest sources of gains in life expectancy over the period 2015-2019.
These losses continued through 2022.”
The study also found increased mortality from substance
abuse and mental health-related causes in some countries during the pandemic.
The USA and Canada saw continued increases in drug-related deaths, contributing
to life expectancy declines. Alcohol-related mortality also increased, with
Latvia experiencing significant life expectancy losses. However, suicide and
accident mortality typically declined during the pandemic years.
Japan and South Korea: The Outliers
Japan and South Korea experienced minimal life expectancy
losses during the pandemic and were the exception to most of these trends.
However, females in Japan saw comparatively large losses from suicide mortality
in 2020.
More positively, cancer mortality generally continued to
decline in most countries. The authors speculate that cancer care was less
disrupted than expected during the pandemic, or that people with cancer were
more susceptible to COVID-19 mortality which was then not counted as a cancer
death.
Strengthening Healthcare for the Future
The study concludes by underscoring the need for robust
healthcare systems capable of handling crises without compromising care for
other conditions. It also highlights the importance of targeted public health
interventions to address the varied impacts across different countries and age
groups.
Co-author Dr. José Manuel Aburto, demographer at the
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and London School of Hygiene &
Tropical Medicine, said, “This study highlights the extent to which the
COVID-19 pandemic impacted other causes of death, and the need to analyze
different diseases and causes of death in a post-pandemic context to identify
factors that can improve global healthcare systems.”
Reference: “Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: A
cause-of-death analysis of life expectancy changes in 24 countries, 2015 to
2022” by Antonino Polizzi, Luyin Zhang, Sergey Timonin, Aashish Gupta, Jennifer
Beam Dowd, David A Leon and José Manuel Aburto, 19 December 2024, PNAS
Nexus.
DOI:
10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae508
